Profit to £10 stakes
Average monthly profit
Return on investment
These are the write ups of 2018’s winners so far
5:30 Grand Annual Chase LE PREZIAN 14/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
LE PREZIAN was sent off 7/2 favourite for this race last season yet is available at 14/1 this year which makes no sense. Yes he didn’t feature last year but I think he is a better horse this year with much more experience. He has been in decent form this season which include a 3rd in the Bet Victor Gold Cup. He comes here bigger and stronger this year on a mark of 150 and should not be 14/1. E/W.
5:30 Cheltenham – MISSED APPROACH 12/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
3 Mile 2 Furlongs and it is going to rain overnight which means the ground will be heavy and probably the worst ground we have had since day one. I haven’t mentioned the ground above although I have made sure all horse go it, none of the races will be as gruesome as this.
I reckon you will see 5-8 finishers in this race with a lot being pulled up.
The two horses in this race who will absolutely love the ground are FINAL NUDGE and MISSED APPROACH. At the same you need horse int his race who stays 4 miles never mind 3m 2f and both horses do exactly that. MISED APPROACH finished 2nd in last year 4 mile race and needs testing ground, while FINAL NUDGE finished 3rd in the Welsh National over further.
I could go on and on about both horses but no need to really. Both stay forever both love the ground and both are well treated in the handicap. E/W.
4:50 Cheltenham – CAP SOLEIL 11/2 WITHOUT LAURINA – 1 POINT WIN
Do I think Laurina wins this race. Yes I do but what a price for CAP SOLEIL to finish 2nd at 11/2. Feral O’Brien absolutely loves this horse and just looking through the field she is more than capable of beating the rest fo these. She has only lost one race in her career and has one win to here name from one start at Cheltenham. I think the track will suit as she looks like she wants undulations. Fairly confident she will be involved. WIN.
2:50 Cheltenham – BLEU BERRY 28/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
Next up is BLEU BERRY who will be ridden by Paul Townend another master in these handicaps. You only have to go back to his ride last year on Arctic Fire to see how good he is at decision making and then in 2015 when Wicklow Brave won the County Hurdle. Two fantastic rides I am sure the horses may have lost the race had other jockeys been on board. BLEU BERRY ran up three consecutive wins last year including a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse. He was then sent to the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival finishing 5th the likes of Bacardys, Finians Oscar, Death Duty and Let’s Dance. That is four high class horses so Willie Mullins obviously thinks this horse is talented. I think he could turn out to be better than his handicap mark of 142 and he has only been seen once this season when finishing down the field in a handicap at Leopardstown when travelling well before blowing up. He needed that run and the cobwebs will be blown off and I expect a big run here. Willie Mullins is a master at getting horses spot on for one race and again I think this has been the plan for sometime. Massive value at the prices. E/W.
2:10 Cheltenham – PRESENTING PERCY 11/4 generally – 2 POINTS WIN
That leaves us with PRESENTING PERCY who was a winner of the Petemps Hurdle last season. He clearly like it around Cheltenham and is the perfect horse to come from off the pace. He will be held up by Davey Russell and make his move after the 3rd last fence to take closer order. PRESENTING PERCY stays forever and won the a handicap chase carrying top weight 2 starts back, over 3m 5f. This is the type of horse you are going to need to win this race. A hardened horse who jumps, stays and is happy to get in a battle. Come the bottom of the hill he will have his ears pricked still motoring up it instead of crying enough. Patrick Kelly is a magician at getting them ready for 1 day only and that will be the case with PRESENTING PERCY. You could argue that he is good enough to run in a Gold Cup considering he was only beaten by 1 length against the now gold 3rd favourite Our Duke. To get within a length of that horse and do it as a novice says a lot about the battle hardened horse. PRESENTING PERCY is a typical future Gold Cup horse and has all the right attributes to win this race and win it comfortably. I actually make him a 7/4 chance now I have gone into a bit more detail.
4:50 Cheltenham – RATHVINDEN 7/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I couldn’t leave RATHVINDEN out as I always kept coming back to him. Patrick Mullins takes the ride and he is one of the best jockeys in the race. He does have a slight question mark over whether he will stay the trip but I am willing to take a chance on the basis he is probably one of the more naturally talented horses in the race. He won 2 races at the start of the season by a combined total of 38 lengths and then chased home Death Duty in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse only beaten by 3 lengths. He was brought down on his next start in another Grade 1 at Leopardstown, when still holding every chance. His latest start was in the Grade 1 Flogas Novice Chase where he was simply outclassed. In total he has run in three Grade 1 races so Willie Mullins obviously holds him in high regard. It is also worth point out that back at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival he chased home Faugheen in 3rd place so he has showed a liking to Cheltenham in the past. The ground will also be appreciated. As listed above the distance is a slight concern but if he can get into a nice rhythm and get some cover he certainly has the ability. The question will be what he finds up the hill. E/W.
2:40 Wincanton – MOABIT 9/4 Ladbrokes – 1.5 POINTS WIN
That leaves MOABIT who in my book make the 13/8 favourite. He has gone up the handicap after his impressive win last time out, to a mark of 131. This is not ideal but he has won off 133 in the best and it was not so long ago that he looked a very good horse. He is only a 6 year old and looked to have turned a corner last time out when winning at Chepstow 2 weeks ago. Bryony Frost takes the ride again and she is just magic in the saddle and worth every bit of the 3lb claim she gets. She thinks logically of how to ride a horse and is one very intelligent. She has only ridden this horse once when winning last time and she often strikes up decent partnerships with horses, which again leads me to believe he can improve under her guidance. Trainer Paul Nicholls is obviously keen to get another run as well as it was less than 2 weeks since he won at Chepstow. Despite carrying top weight I think MOABAIT is going to be a very hard horse to beat tomorrow. WIN.
15:40 Fontwell – DICOSIMO 11/1 Paddy Power – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I will start with DICOSIMO who used to be trained by Willie Mullins but changed to Warren Greatrex in November for owners Jill and Robin Eynon (same owners as Cole Harden). DICOSIMO has had 2 runs for his new trainer, one of which was a Grade 2 at Ascot and was way out of his depth. The other in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. He was pulled up on his last start but judging by the Wind Operation just 11 days later he clearly had breathing issues. Now he has had the wind operation and 2 1/2 months to recover his handicap mark of 132 looks very winnable off. This is a horse who was rated 150 just a couple of seasons ago and has come down the handicap by 18lb. The jockey booking of Richard Johnson also looks very interesting. This is not the best handicap race and although he has to carry top weight, catching him first time up since his wind op, could be the answer. 11/1 is a big price taking everything into consideration. E/W.
15:50 Southwell – GOOD TRADITION 4/1 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
Hammersly Lake is the favourite here and over jumps he would easily win this but on the Fibresand it is a different ball game. Hammersly Lake is what you call a proper National Hunt Horse so although the likeliest winner, he may be worth taking on at odds of 4/6. The horse to take him on with is GOOD TRADITION who used to be trained by Dermot Weld on the flat horse who is now trained by Donald McCain. He has had 10 starts over hurdles for his latest trainer but the form I am focusing on is his form on the flat when trained by Dermot Weld. He has the highest mark in the field on the flat and if this was a handicap he would have to give weight away to the whole field. In his prime on the flat he was rated 104 and the fact he runs off level weights and has experience on the flat tells me he is worth the bet at 4/1. Harry Stock is also on board and he claims a valuable 7lb which basically makes him bottom weight. GOOD TRADITION is entitled to be a bit shorter and the back of the few things mentioned above. WIN.
15:30 Warwick – COBRA DE MAI 4/1 Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
COBRA DE MAI is an interesting runner here. He rattled up 3 wins from his first 4 starts over fences between 1st May and 3rd of October, quickly going up the handicap. On his next 2 starts he run at Cheltenham finishing 5th behind Foxtail Hill and then 4th behind Benatar at Ascot. That horse is now rated 149 after beating the highly regarded Finian’s Oscar so the form looks solid. COBRA DE MAI has not been seen since but on the 13th November went for a wind operation. I imagine he has missed the winter because he needs better ground and as described above, the ground is described as good to soft with no rain forecast. Considering this horse started his season back in May I am sure the rest over the winter was appreciated and I expect the wind operation will have a positive affect. If he was getting beat by only 7 lengths to a horse like Benatar, with wind issues, imagine what he could be like if it is sorted? He is now rated 133 which is very winnable off. He won off 134 just 2 starts back so could be very well treated. WIN.
16:05 Huntingdon – RENE’S GIRL 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
When I opened up the betting I was expecting RENE’S GIRL to be around the 7/4 mark so I was very happy to see the 5/2 available. I am pretty sure she will go off a lot shorter tomorrow. Her main dangers for me are Got Away who could improve but was given the run of the race last time out and won’t be allowed to lead here, as both RENES GIRL and Desert Queen like to front run. The other danger is Desert Queen but she always seems to gas out at the end of her races and cries wolf. I would also want at least 5/1 if I was to get involved with Desert Queen. With RENES GIRL I have been visual impressed with 2 of her 3 starts this season. She has won her 2 races on bridle and the one that she did lose was because it was too short a trip. A trainer error rather than the horses fault. RENE’S GIRL is also a very good jumper and I think Huntingdon will suit a lot. I noticed she has jumped slightly right on her last 3 starts, all of which on left handed tracks. Huntingdon is a right handed track which will only enhance her chances and make sure she jumps true and straight. WIN.
16:15 Meydan – FOLKSWOOD 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
As good as the favourite Leshlaa was here last time out he didn’t run against anything as good as FOLKSWOOD who I rate very highly. I think the 11/4 available is a cracking bet. FOLKSWOOD form at Meydan last season read 212 so we know he likes the course. Over the autumn he was also in great form with a win in Australia and chasing home the exceptional Winx in 3rd place, before finishing 5th of 12 (beaten 2 lengths) at Flemington Park in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes. He was even sent off favourite for that Group 1 last time out so is down in class with this being a Group 3. FOLKSWOOD is also drawn in 1 and the horse likes to be prominent which will help him to get a decent position. William Buick is on board and he rides Meydan as good as anyone. May be a strip fitter for the run but I make him a 9/4 chance which means we are slightly ahead of the traders. WIN.
15:35 Ascot – WAITING PATIENTLY 5/2 with Paddy Power – 2 POINT WIN
I rate WAITING PATIENTLY very highly and what a fitting tribute it would be if he could win this race for trainer Malcolm Jefferson who sadly passed away, and whose funeral was today. His wife Ruth Jefferson now trains the horse (and Mount Mews) and I believe it is written that this horse wins this race. He is unbeaten in 5 starts over fences and won a listed race at Kempton last time out. He is a very good jumper and has a high cruising speed. The ground will be absolutely perfect and I also think Ascot will play to his strengths. We will see tomorrow but I genuinely believe this horse is special when he gets cut in the ground. WIN.
14:25 Sandown – MIDNIGHT TUNE 4/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
MIDNIGHT TUNE is a solid bet here. She has the best form in the race after defeating Ron’s Dream 2 starts back in a handicap. She ran in a Grade 2 last time and although she was convincingly beaten by La Bague Au Roi I think she is better than that showing. MIDNIGHT TUNE should go very close. WIN.
15:00 Sandown – RATHLIN ROSE 9/4 generally – 1 POINT WIN
RATHLIN ROSE won this race last year under the same jockey Guy Disney so both know how to win around here. He actually comes into the race is decent form after finishing a respectable 6th in the Welsh National. The fact both horse and jockey know what to expect will pay dividends in my opinion. WIN.
14:25 Kelso – CYRUS DARIUS 3/1 with Coral – 1 POINT WIN
CYRUS DARIUS won this race last season off a handicap mark of 145. He comes here rated 142 this season so must have a huge chance based on that alone. This will be his fist start hurdles this season and judging by his last efforts over fences, the smaller obstacles will be appreciated. He is a very classy horse on his day and even run in last years Champion Hurdle. Think he should be around the 9/4 mark so I am happy with the 3/1 available. WIN.
14:45 Leicester – COLIN’S BROTHER 3/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
I really fancy COLIN’S BROTHER here especially with Jamie Bargary claiming 3lb. That means he carries under 11st and with the condition quite testing I expect COLIN’S BROTHER to get home better than all of these. He done all his best work when winning at Ludlow just before Christmas and although he hasn’t been seen for a couple of months, I have noticed he has had a number of entries so we know he is fit. I still think he has more improvement to come. WIN.
15:00 Sandown – TOPOFTHEGAME 11/2 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
I think this horse will improve massively for the step up in trip. He finished off very strongly on his last start in a hot handicap at Kempton. He is now rated 142 but I think he could still be well handicapped especially over this trip. Paul Nicholls thinks an awful lot of TOPOFTHEGAME and being by Flemensfirth he will love the conditions. Quietly confident he wins this race. WIN.
13:50 Wincanton – VALHALLA 4/1 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
Only 3 runners here and at 4/1 VALHALLA is a great bet. This is his 5th start of the season over fences and he has got better with each run. He was a winner at Exeter a month ago and is going in the right direction. Over hurdles he is rated 137 so the mark of 127 looks lenient. Todays 2nd favourite is making his debut over fences so is there to be shot at and the favourite looks a false one to me which I wouldn’t be touching at the prices. That leaves VALHALLA who is rated outsider of the field when really he should be around the 7/4 mark. WIN.
15:35 Wincanton – GRAND VISION 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
GRAND VISION could put these to the test in bad ground. He loves to front run and his jumping last time out was electric. If he can into a rhythm he could have most of this field struggling. The 2m 4f is a bit on the short side for him but in the ground and running from the front, it is going to be a 3 mile test. I expect a bold show and once again a horse who should be shorter. I make him around the 10/3 mark so very happy with 5/1. WIN.
13:50 Cheltenham – FRODON 8/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power – 0.5 POINTS E/W
It is hard to believe FRODON is only a 6 year old as it seems like he has been around forever. He was the winner of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup when just a 4 year old. That was his last visit to Cheltenham so we know he likes the course. The ground was also similar to what he is going to encounter today. We have Bryony Frost on board who has been riding out of her skin this season and she takes a valuable 5lb off his back. It was only 2 starts ago this horse was finishing 8 lengths behind Might Bite so we know he has a touch of class and if he can get into a nice rhythm he is sure to go close. E/W.
13:50 Ascot – LA BAGUE AU ROI 11/10 Ladbrokes – 3 POINT WIN
This horse should be 4/7, the evens available is an absolute steal. She has one danger in this race and that is Dusky Legend who I don’t think will get 3 miles on heavy ground, in a million years. Bar a fall LA BAGUE AU ROI wins. She already beat Dusky Legend last season and our selection has improved considerably since then. She was stepped up in trip last time out and stayed every yard of the 3 miles. She beat a very good horse in Jer’s Girl and something would surely have to go a miss for this one to get beat. WIN.
14:30 Lingfield – KACHY 7/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
Front runner KACHY is drawn 9 of 9 which is not ideal but when I looked a bit deeper into the race most horses like to be held up. I don’t think this will affect the horse getting the lead he needs and it will take a good horse to catch him. KACHY is rated 105 but the handicapper and does have to concede weight to the field. For me he is head and shoulders above these and the fact he is going to most probably get a soft lead bodes well for the horse. This is a Class 2 so he is down in trip as he has been running consistently well in a much better races. WIN.
14:05 Kempton – WAITING PATIENTLY 2/1 BETFRED – 1.5 POINTS WIN
True to his name Malcolm Jefferson has been patient with WAITING PATIENTLY this season making sure he picks the right race for the horse. He has really been looked after as connections think they have a special horse on their hands. He has had 4 runs over fences and has won all 4 races. He is a super jumper and has not put a foot wrong. He firmly put Politologue in his place last year and that is a horse I rate highly. I think it will take a very good performance to get this horse beat and I think we may be a high class horse. The fact he has been looked after so well with pay divendends with his future. WIN.
14:25 Warwick – BLACK IVORY 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
This is the type of race where I am always looking towards the bottom of the handicap. It is a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at Cheltenham. If you are running in this race you are looking to get qualified for the race. The reason I look to the bottom of the handicap is because you realistically need a handicap mark of at least 135 to get in the race. Because of that any horse rated lower than that mark you know will trying their nuts off as any lower and you won’t get in the race. It also means that the horses nearer the top will not want to ruin the handicap mark if they are around the 135 or more mark. BLACK IVORY fits the bill perfectly. He is rated 126 so needs to come up the handicap at least 9lb. Win this race well and you pretty much get the mark you want. Malcolm Jefferson is as shrewd as they come and I imagine he has been planning this for sometime. BALCK IVORY was an impressive winner last time out on heavy ground beating a highly regarded Le Breuil by 6 lengths. He was raised 6lb for that but I think he should’ve gone up more in the handicap. Malcolm Jefferson is using Jamie Hamilton who claims a further 3lb which pretty much puts him bottom weight. I expect a big run and I think you will see this horse go off around the 11/4 mark. WIN.
14:40 Kempton – WILLIAM HENRY 13/2 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I really rate this horse and can forgive his last run as it was his debut over fences. He is now back over hurdles and I expect WILLIAM HENRY to be involved here. The star from last week James Bowen is on board and he claims a valuable 5lb. He is a very good horse and he showed this last season with 2 wins and two 2nds. The three 2nds were against Pingshou and Wholestone who are both top class horses. I expect WILLIAM HENRY to travel smoothly through the race and the 5lb claim will come into play in the last part of the race. It is worth pointing out that he was a 17 length winner at Kempton a few seasons ago so obviously likes the course and going right handed. E/W.
14:25 Sandown – SUMMERVILLE BOY 16/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I think SUMMERVILLE BOY is a huge price at 16/1. The favourite in this race is Western Ryder who our selection finished 3rd to at Cheltenham last time out. That day SUMMERVILLE BOY was sent off 9/4 and Western Ryder 5/2 so I can’t understand why the prices are massively different here with our selection only going down by 5 lengths. I don’t think Noel Fehily gave the horse a great ride either and we have regular jockey AP Heskin back on board today. He is the retained rider for Tom George so will know the horse well, having ridden in training and on the course. Whether he wins or not is another matter but one thing for sure is he is way overpriced. E/W.
15:55 Chepstow – GOOD BOY BOBBY 6/4 Bet 365 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I was impressed with the way GOOD BOY BOBBY won on his debut at Chepstow 2 months ago. He seemed to hang in the closing stages but still won the race. He is sure to improve for that run and connections have put a hood on him today which should help him concentrate that bit better. He is also by Flemensfirth and his horses always like cut in the ground. The going will be perfect and I expect this horse to win with a bit in hand. WIN.
13:25 Cheltenham – YANWORTH 15/8 generally – 2 POINT WIN
YANWORTH finished 2nd to todays favourite Willoughby Court last time out at Newbury but today he has a 5lb pull at the weights. If YANWORTH didn’t make a mistake last time out he would’ve gone close. He will need to sort his jumping out but at the prices I can’t not bet a classy horse like this. The ground will be no problem and he has won around Cheltenham previously. WIN.
15:10 Cheltenham – WHOLESTONE 7/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
WHOLESTONE has got to turn form around with todays favourite Colins Sister but he absolutely loves Cheltenham. His form reads 12113 at the course and thats includes a 3rd the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle. The ground will be no problem as he won on soft ground here twice last season.