Profit to £10 stakes
Average monthly profit
Return on investment
These are the write ups of 2018’s winners so far
ASPETAR 4/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
I really like the look of ASPETAR here who is trained by Roger Charlton who is a shrewd trainer when it comes to races like this. I thought he he was very good on his sole start at Windsor last month when scoring by nearly 4 lengths. He is up in class here but with a month since his last run, I am sure Roger Charlton has got much more improvement out of him. The step up in trip will also be appreciated whereas others in this race have question marks about getting the trip. WIN.
MAGIC CIRCLE 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
Weekender is the short priced favourite her but he is having his first start on the turf this year. I am keen to take him on at the prices with two horses.
MAGIC CIRCLE was seriously when winning the Chester Cup 2 weeks ago and looks to have improved massively under new trainer Ian Williams. He won that race by 6 lengths and could yet have more to come. This is another step up in trip but the horse will relish the fast ground and also the fast pace. MAGIC CIRCLE will stay every yard and if close enough coming into the final furlong will be staying on better than anything. WIN.
15:50 Market Rasen – MIDNIGHT MAESTRO 13/2 – 0.75 POIINTS E.W
I have been waiting for MIDNIGHT MAESTRO since he finished 2nd to Rothman on his last start a month ago. He let the winner have first run on him that day otherwise he would have gone close. It was also on bad ground so I expect a better performance on decent ground. He is rated 126 by the handicapper but on his day I think he is a better horse than that. 13/2 is decent value. E/W.
16:15 Naas – SIOUX NATION 13/8 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I make SIUOX NATION evens favourite so I am happy to bet at 13/8. He was the winner of the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and is by far the best horse in the race especially on the better ground. We have Ryan Moore in the saddle and he will take all the beating. He was 4th on his first run of the season on bad ground. He will come on lots for that run and this is a weak race compared to what he is used to running in. WIN.
15:40 Newbury – RHODODENDRON 10/3 – 1 POINT WIN
It is very interesting that they are dropping RHODODENDRON back to 1 mile after running most of his races over 1m 2f last season. He does have lots of speed though and he showed this when 2nd in last years 2000 guineas. He was also the winner of the Group 1 Prix De L’opera Longines at last years Arc meeting. He is all class and one thing for certain is he will be running on at the end. The only question I have is if the ship would’ve sailed or not by the time he picks up, against other horses who have more natural speed. I am sure he will set out to make this a very strong pace which will play to his advantage. WIN.
17:35 Newmarket – MOVE IN TIME 4/1 – 1 POINT WIN
MOVE IN TIME has returned this season a new horse and will go very close to winning this race. He has had two runs this season finishing 3rd of 14 at Newcastle and then 2nd of 9 at this course a month ago in a Class 3. This is a Class 4 so he is down in close for just a length beating . MOVE IN TIME is now rated 83 by the handicapper but just 2 years ago was rated 105. He has come down the handicap over 20lbs in that time and I am quietly confident he will get his head in front for the first time since 2015. WIN.
16:05 York – THUNDERING BLUE 9/2 – 1 POINT WIN
THUNDERING BLUE is a progressive 5 year old who still has plenty of improvement left in him. He was an impressive winner of two races at Sandown and Newmarket last season. These wins were followed up with a very respectable 7th of 34 in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. THUNDERING BLUE reappeared at Epsom last month and finished 5th of 10. I must say he looked in need of the run in the paddock from what I seen and went down as a paddock horse with improvement on his next start. He still run a decent race and will come on massively for that run. I think a course like York will be right up his street, especially with the long straight. WIN.
Unfortunately I was not able to provide write ups for the tips on this day as I was admitted to hospital with a severe slipped disc and to possibly await surgery. We did have winners though…
14:20 York – EL ASTRONATE 10/1 – 0.5 PTS E/W
15:30 York – ROARING LION 5/2 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
14:20 York – HAMADA 9/4 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
HAMADA looks to be very well handicapped on a mark of 92. He had his first start for 572 days at Wolverhampton at the end of April and he won with quite a bit in hand. It was a good performance with the length of time he had off the track and although this is a step up in class, HAMADA should improve massively for that run. I believe he is well handicapped on his 2 year old form as if he wasn’t off the track for 572 days, I am pretty sure he would’ve improved into a low 100 horse as a 3 year old. As a 2 year old he finished 2nd to Atty Persse off level weights and that horse is now rated 101. On his penultimate start which was back in October 2016 he was stepped up in trip to 1m 2f and absolutely bolted up by 6 lengths. That was the last we seen of HAMADA until the 28th April 2018. He was stepped up to 1m 4f (todays trip) and as mentioned above, it was a good performance and the step up in trip was clearly appreciated. Despite being a 4 year old he has only had 4 starts so I am pretty sure he has so much more improvement to come. WIN.
14:05 York – GIVE AND TAKE 4/1 – 1 POINT WIN
I have gone through this field and I am happy to take on favourite Highgraden simply because his breeding tells me he wants further and I believe he wants softer ground. The same applies with Ejyah who was made a non runner because the ground was to fast just 3 days ago.
That left me with 5 horses and Expensive Liaison is not good enough, Lubinka only won a Class 6 at Lingfield last time out so will have to improve massively on that performance.
It was out of Ceilidhs Dream and GIVE AND TAKE and I sided with the latter on his recent perfromance at Sandown in what looked a very good race. She finished 2nd to Crystal Hope over todays trip and had todays favourite back in 3rd a further length back. GIVE AND TAKE travelled really well through the race and if she travelled like that in softish ground, she should travel even smoother on faster ground. On that form alone she has the beating off Highgarden. Her form as 2 year old is also very good. She finished 2nd to Wild Illusion over 1 mile and that horse went on to win a Group 1. I personally think she should be fighting for favouritism and will run a huge race. WIN.
13:50 Newmarket – GIFTED MASTER – 16/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I have put up GIFTED MASTER as I think he could have the run of the race drawn from in 12. He is a front runner and from a draw in 12 he should be able to bag the rail which will be a big advantage. He has his usual blinkers on and comes here fit after a run on the All Weather just over a month ago. This is actually his first handicap run which shows his class considering he has had 22 runs. 90% of his runs have been in Group 1s, 2s and 3s so this is a step down in class. He has top weight to carry which is not going to be easy but with a favoured draw and a recent run under his belt he may well get away with it. GIFTED MASTER was a Class 1 winner last August and has run some big races in Group company in the past. Will outrun his huge odds of 16/1 thats for sure and I am willing to take a chance despite the weight he has to carry. E/W.
15:35 Newmarket – SAXON WARRIOR 5/1 – 1 POINTS WIN
SAXON WARRIOR also comes here unbeaten and was the winner of the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster back in October. He is a very good horse and again is beautifully bred. His Dam ‘Maybe’ finished 3rd in the 1000 guineas and his sire is the great ‘Deep Impact’. My racing brain tells with this horse is he wants further than 1 mile and is more a Derby horse and a St Leger horse as his sire Deep Impact was at his best between 1m 4f and 2m. Now looking through the field and it being his first start of the season he could well get away with it over 1 mile. It is not the strongest renewal and this horse is all class. He travelled very well in the Racing Post Trophy and one thing for sure is if this race ends up in a battle, SAXON WARRIOR will be staying on better than anything. At the prices I would certainly want to be on SAXON WARRIOR over stablemate Gustav Klimt.
I am happy to go in double handed with SAXON WARRIOR as although I think he wants further, he could get away with it here against a mediocre field for a Guineas. He won the Racing Post Trophy like a very good thing last season and in my opinion deserves to be shorter in the market. He will be heading to the derby after this but in the meantime he has every chance of winning this race.
15:45 Ascot – INVINCIBLE ARMY 7/4 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
Quite confident with INVINCIBLE ARMY as I believe he is head and shoulders above these. His last run last season was when 2nd to James Garfield and that has boosted the form last week when winning at Newbury. His form is easily the best in the field from last season which included a win in the Group 3 Serenia Stakes at Kempton. He was also runner up in 3 Group 2s. I think INVINCIBLE ARMY will travel smoothly through the race and class will tell. I am pretty sure he would’ve trained on as a 3 year old as at times he looked green as a 2 year old which tells me he will improve. He is short at 7/4 but in my book I make him an 11/8 chance. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off that price or shorter to be honest. WIN.
16:15 Salisbury – MOABIT 3/1 – 1 POINT WIN
We know MOABIT will come here a fit horse as he has been running over hurdles. The ground is described at Heavy and that will also be in his favour massively. It is worht pointing out that this horse has been to Salisbury twice and was a winner both times. The ground is going to catch a few of these out especially on their seasonal reappearance and I am confident MOABIT can take full adavantage of this. WIN.
16:20 Punchestown – KEMBOY 6/1 – 0.75 POINTS E/W
KEMBOY has to carry top weight but not much splits the main contenders in this race. KEMBOY looked really good on his last start when winning at Limerick 2 weeks ago. He easily brushed aside Tombstone that by 8 lengths. On his penultimate start KEMBOY fell in the Irish National and was a very good 4th in the JLT Chase at thee Cheltenham Festival back in March. His form this season reads 214F1, Paul Townend has chosen this horse out of all of Willie Mullins horses and he should be bang there. I can’t see how he is out of the frame as long as his jumping holds up. E/W.
18:40 Punchestown – CAID DU BERALIS 6/1 – 0.75 POINTS E/W
I thought CAID DU BERLAIS he put in a terrific performance at Cheltenham to finish 5th in th Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival. We have William Buick on board and he is a jockey I rate. our selection won 3 races before going to Cheltenham and is still relatively young at 9 when it comes to hunter chasing. He was rated as high as 151 just a few season back and even won the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in 2014. He is sure to be involved and looks like he has been targeted for this race since Cheltenham.
17:30 Punchestown – FAUGHEEN 10/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
Is FAUGHEEN the same horse he used to be? No he is clearly not after his run in the Champion Hurdle. Can he win this race? Who knows what this 3 miles will do to him. He actually looked more like a stayer when winning the Neptune Novice Hurdle as a novice and he won’t need to use the finishing kick you have to use to win over 2 miles. We have seen over the years how 3 miles rejuvenates a horse and Jezki, Solwhit and Hurricane Fly all came back to win over 3 miles. I am not standing here saying he is going to win the race but I am happy to take the chance at a huge price of 10/1. E/W.
16:55 Punchestown – NEXT DESTINATION 15/8 – 1 POINT WIN
I simply can’t see past NEXT DESTINATION in this who has been crying out for 3 miles all season. In my own tissue I have him at 15/8 so we have no value we match the bookies evenly. Even so I am happy to get involved on even playing field with the bookies as in my opinion he will be a proper horse over 3 miles. His last run was at Cheltenham in the Neptune where he came home 3rd to Samcro and Black Op. Samcro is Samcro and Black Op boosted the form at Aintree. NEXT DESTINATION hit a flat spot in that race before staying on all the way up the hill the grab 3rd. The trip was over 2m 5f so this shows how much he is crying out fro 3 miles if he finished lke he did, on an undualting course like Cheltenham. That was actually his only defest of the season as he won 3 race on the bounce previously, including the Grade 1 Lawlor Of Naas Novice Hurdle. This is a confident bet as I don’t see much in the field to trouble him. WIN.
13:45 Ayr – THEINVAL 5/1 – 1 POINT WIN
Not sure if he will run after today but if he do I am sure he has a big chance. He didn’t get involved in the finish so didn’t use up much energy in the finish. He may well be a non runner but it is worth taking the chance at the price.
Below was what we sent out today:
I just can’t see past THEINVAL here. He finished 2nd in this race last year to the classy Cloudy Dream and is a huge 7lb lower this time around. It is not as if the horse in not in form either after finsihing 4th at the Cheltenham Festival and 2nd at Aintree. He has taken the same route to this race as he did last year and does not have a horse like Cloudy Dream in his way this time around. If he repeats his 2 previous runs he wins this race quite comfortably. WIN.
16:40 Ayr – MOON RACER 8/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
This is the last chance I am giving to MOON RACER. I really rate the horse but he has not delivered what he is capbale of. I still think he has run respectively this season in bad ground and the return to better ground should bring out improvement. He is now down the handicap to a mark of 138 and he surely must go close off that mark. He is a better horse on better ground as he showed when winning th Champion Bumper back in 2015. He had wind surgery back in October and has had 2 runs in terrible ground since. He is a quick horse once he gets going but he has not been allowed to use that on bad ground. He will have his chance to show his true class tomorrow and I am expecting a big run. E/W.
15:00 Newmarket – BRANDO 3/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
BRANDO is the obvious choice here having won the race last year and is a proven Group 1 horse. The favourite Le Brivido has not been seen since Royal Ascot and has still got to prove he could beat a group 1 horse in BRANDO. It is possible but I would rather go with what it is right in front of me in a race like this. BRANDO is a smooth travelling horse who has actually just had a wind operation. That may well have improved him further. Sure to be involved with thsi field being run off level weights. He was sent off evens last year yet is 3/1 this year. Thank you very much. WIN.
14:05 Cheltenham – DAME DE COMPAGNIE 2/1 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
DAME DE COMPAGNIE should be very hard to beat here. She is a smooth travelling horse who has lots of gears. She has not been able to use those gears this season in soft ground so the return to good ground is going to bring the very best out of her. Her main danger in the betting is Dame Rose but our selection gets 5lb from her. Nicky Henderson thinks alot of this horse and she was even entered in the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival but made a non runner, presumably because of the soft ground. DAME DE COMPAGNIE made a winning start in this country on good ground which comes to me she is all about the better ground. I would be surprised if she was beat put it that way. WIN.
14:25 Newmarket – PORTH SWTAN – 9/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
This is a thirteen runner maiden where 5 of the runners are making their debut. I wouldn’t want to be touching any of them 5 so that narrows it down to 8 runners.
Of the 8 runners I can only see 5 with any sort of chance so we have now narrowed it down to a 5 runner race.
With this being a maiden and 99% having their first start of the season, I like to go for experience in this race. By experience I don’t just mean number of runs but also any form at the course. The rowley mile at Newmarket is not everyones cup of tea with the dip mid race, and it can catch horses out.
No other horse in the race matches that description better than the Charles Hills trainer PORT SWTAN who has lots of experience with 6 runs last year. Although he failed to win he did finish 2nd 4 times and was very unlucky not to have won a race yet.
PORT SWTAN also has two nice pieces of form on this course back in October and November, finsihing 2nd on both starts. It proves he handles the course and more so the dip. When you combine the amount of runs he has had with experience at the course you have a cracking bet at 6/1 with Paddy Power.
Furthmore trainer Charles Hills has had 4 winners from his last 6 runners at odds of 2/9, 20/1, 11/4 and 5/1. His horses are flying at the moment and PORT SWTAN must have an excellent chance. WIN.
15:35 Newmarket – PURSER 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
The short price favourite here is Symbolization who looked good last time out but this is better company. At the prices I am happy to take him on with PURSER who will come here a fit horse after running 18 days ago at Newcastle on the All Weather. He chased home Gronkowski that day in 4th place and the winner is highly regarded and will be running in the Kentucky Derby. It was a fair effort and PURSER was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths. He ran in two Group 3s last season finishing 3rd and 4th behind another two very good horses in Ghaiyyath and Masar, one of which was at this course on the rowley mile which means he handles the course. Does give the favourite 3lb but comes here match fit. Overpriced at 5/2 I thought he would be close to favourite. WIN.
16:20 Windsor – MOBSTA 11/8 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
We were on MOBSTA last time out when he came home 4th in a competitive handicap. He went straight into my notebook that day as he was a very unlucky loser.as he was badly hampered inside the final furlong. He was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths despite being hampered and would’ve surely gone close to winning if it didn’t happen. He was subject to a massive gamble day and was sent off 5/2. This race is much weaker and MOBSTA runs off the same handicap mark. He is short at 11/8 but I really can’t see how he loses if he puts the same perofrmance in. He absolutely loves soft ground and was a horse who was 106 this time last year. WIN.
14:25 Aintree – Mersey Novices Hurdle – BLACK OP 9/4 generally – 2 POINT WIN
The market says it is a 2 horse race and I have to agree with them but I am happy to side with BLACK OP over On The Blind Side who’s only advantage is he comes here fresh after missing Cheltenham. I am sticking with BLACK OP though as he got within 2 lengths of the absolute superstar Samcro and I don’t think OTBS could do that. I also believe OTBS could hit a flat spot and a horse like BLACK OP will take advantage of that. BLACK was 2nd to Santini at Cheltenham in January and then 2nd to Samcro at the Cheltenham. Santini boosted that form today also. He deserves a win and the ground will be no problem having run on it the last twice. A track like Aintree should suit him. WIN.
13:45 Aintree – Gaskells Handicap Hurdle – MR BIG SHOT 10/1 generally (6 PLACES) – 0.5 POINTS E/W
We were on MR BIG SHOT at Cheltenham and I thought he ran a fair race to finish 10th of 23 on his first start for 345 days. He is sure to come on massively for that run off the same handicap mark. He is up in trip which is quite intriguing and just going by his breeding, I am sure he will relish this test. He is by Flemensfirth who’s horses normally absolutely relish testing conditions. I know the yard think an awful lot about the horse and after having a nice blow at Cheltenham should be spot on for this. E/W.
16:40 Aintree – Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle – SANTINI 2/1 generally – 2 POINT WIN
I believe Aintree is the perfect course for SANTINI. He has only had 3 starts for Nicky Henderson and is still in-experienced. The talent this horse has is unbelievable and he has so much more to come. He won his first two starts of the season and then finished 3rd in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival on terrible ground. He came from a mile back in that race to stay on for 3rd and it was a fair run. You will see the best of this horse next year when he jumps fences but in the meantime he should win this. This is a weaker race than the Albert Bartlett and I will be very surprised if he is beat. WIN./p>
16:05 Aintree – Topham Handicap Chase – ULTRAGOLD 20/1 (6 PLACES) – 0.375 POINTS E/W
First up we have ULTRAGOLD who won this race last year. He is 5lb higher in the weights this year but has since come back in December to finish 2nd in the Sefton Handicap Chase over these fences, on the same mark as today. He finished 2nd to Gas Line Boy who has a great chance in the National itself so it is top class form. Harry Cobden takes the ride again and ULTRAGOLD comes alive over these fences and I would much rather have a horse you know jumps these fences at 20/1, than trying to find a well handicapped horse. That is 20/1 for a horse who won the race last year and easily beat today’s favourite O O Seven that day. Why there is such a price difference I could’nt tell you but I am over the moon with the price. E/W.
14:50 Aintree – Betway Mildmay Novices Hurdle – TERREFORT 7/2 generally – 2 POINT WIN
Ever since TERREFORT made his british debut when winning at Huntingdon, I thought he was crying out for 3 miles particularly on a flat track like Aintree. He now runs over 3 miles for the first time and you have to take the hint from Nicky Henderson as he could’ve easily run in today’s Manifesto Novice Chase over the shorter trip and by the way the race was run, would probably have won. TERREFORT won his first two starts of the season and then put in an excellent effort to finish 2nd to Shattered Love in the JLT Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, giving away 7lb. I think you will now see a much better horse over 3 miles (not that he done anything wrong over 2m 4f). Only a 5 year old so has the world at his feet. WIN.
14:50 Aintree – Betway Bowl Chase – BRISTOL DE MAI 2/1 (WITHOUT MIGHT BITE) – 1.5 POINTS WIN
The first question was do I want to take on Might Bite with the poor record favourites have in this race. The answer was no as the opposition is quite poor and he should win this race doing cartwheels.
Now take Might Bite out of the race and bet in the market, without Might Bite then yes I do want get involved with BRISTOL DE MAI.
The ground will be soft enough for BRISTOL DE MAI and he comes here a fresh horse after missing Cheltenham for this race. His season got off to a great start winning the Charlie Hall Chase and then the Betfair Chase at Haydock. He was then sent Kempton for the King George where he went off 3/1 2nd fav behind Might Bite. Looking back he was never going to enjoy going right handed as all his form was on left handed tracks. His last run was at Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase at the end of January. He came home 3rd that day behind another of today’s runners Definitly Red.
I was very surprised he was beat that day but looking through his form he was sent for a wind operation just 2 days after the Cotswold Chase. Daryl Jacob clearly reported a breathing problem so looking back, to finish 10 lengths off the winner in Grade 2, while having breathing issues is not a bad run. BRISTOL DE MAI has not been seen since and been kept fresh for this very race.
I have gone back through his form to see what it was like coming back from a 50 day break or more and his form reads 112211. The best time to catch him is clearly when fresh and he comes here on the back of a 75 day break.
BRISTOL DE MAI is available at 2/1 (without Might Bite) and that is a cracking bet in my eyes.
I don’t think Clan Des Obeaux, Double Shuffle, Sizing Codelco or Sub Lieutenant are good enough. Definitly Red and Tea For Two come here on the back of a hard race in the Gold Cup, as does Might Bite but he is in a class of his own.
Even if BRISTOL DE MAI wins the race we still make a profit and if he finishes 2nd to Might Bite, again we make a profit.
14:05 Kempton – A MOMENTOFMADNESS – 11/4 generally – 1 POINT WIN
It is hard to ignore A MOMENTOFMADNESS here under a Buick ride from Stall 3. He is a horse who likes to be prominent so as long as he can break well he will be tough to beat. He had his first start of the season 2 weeks ago at Lingfield getting beat by another of todays runners Tomily. Today A MOMENTOFMADNESS is 5lb better off at the weights and given the fact he didn’t break well in that race and still only lost by under a length, tells me with a decent start he should easily reverse that form. He should also come on loads from his first start of the season and a track like Kempton should be more to his liking so he can use his speed. He has been to the course twice and is unbeaten. Personally if I see him lead I am confident he won’t be caught. WIN.
14:35 Fontwell – WIZARDS BRIDGE 5/2 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
Five runner race and Colin Tizzard has 2 of the runners. Harry Cobden woud’ve had the pick of both horses and he has sided with WIZARDS BRIDGE. It is his form at Fontwell which really stands and reads 311PU1. Three wins from 5 starts so he is clearly a course specialist. He was a winner last time out at Chepstow over a trip too short so this step up in trip will be appreciated. He was a winner over 3m 2f here in October which is the same trip as today. The field are closely matched in the handicap but for me WIZARDS BRIDGE gets the vote and quite a confident vote. WIN.
14:45 Fairyhouse – GETABIRD 6/4 Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
We were on GETABIRD at the Cheltenham Festival where he flopped. I said in my review afterwards that he jumped right all the way around and the only time you would ever see me betting this horse again was when he was going right handed. I still think he is a serious horse but it is paramount that he goes right handed. On his penultimate start he beat Menghli Khan by an easy 9 lengths in the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown. The runner up went and finished 3rd in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival showing that GETABIRD was clearly affected by going left handed. When going right handed GETABIRD is unbeaten and that includes a win here back in 2016 when winning a bumper by 12 lengths. I am fairly confident he will win and would normally go 2 points win but due to a bad performance at Cheltneham I have reluctantly kept it to 1 point win.
15:05 Meydan – JUNGLE CAT 5/1 available – 1 POINT E/W (BET 365 PAYING 1/4 ODDS)
Surely the worst that could happen for JUNGLE CAT is he finishes in the first 3 and we get our money back. All the rage is about Blue Point and he is a very good horse but I just can’t get away from the fact JUNGLE CAT lowered the course record last time out and is in the form of his life. He beat Ertijaal on his last start who beat Blue Point earlier in the season. If Blue Point is going to win this he has to break the course record as JUNGLE CAT won like he had more to come last time out. I am very happy with the 5/1 available as I make him an 11/4 chance.
15:55 Towcester – SKIPPING ON 11/4 with Paddy Power – 1 POINT WIN
SKIPPING ON will win this race if he can get his jumping together. It is the right race for him and with Patrick Cowley claiming 5lb, the horse will be carrying less than 10st. Despite his jumping being a bit sketchy he has still managed to win 2 races, and looked likely to win another bar a fall 2 fences out. SKIPPING ON was a winner at Towcester 2 months ago and then looked to be the winner at the same course on his next start had he not fell. You are looking at a horse who would be coming into the race with a 100% record at the course so he clearly likes it around here. SKIPPING ON was a winner last time out at Southwell doing most of his good work in the latter part of the race. He is getting up to 2 stone off some off these and ought to go close with a clear round. WIN.
5:30 Grand Annual Chase LE PREZIAN 14/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
LE PREZIAN was sent off 7/2 favourite for this race last season yet is available at 14/1 this year which makes no sense. Yes he didn’t feature last year but I think he is a better horse this year with much more experience. He has been in decent form this season which include a 3rd in the Bet Victor Gold Cup. He comes here bigger and stronger this year on a mark of 150 and should not be 14/1. E/W.
5:30 Cheltenham – MISSED APPROACH 12/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
3 Mile 2 Furlongs and it is going to rain overnight which means the ground will be heavy and probably the worst ground we have had since day one. I haven’t mentioned the ground above although I have made sure all horse go it, none of the races will be as gruesome as this.
I reckon you will see 5-8 finishers in this race with a lot being pulled up.
The two horses in this race who will absolutely love the ground are FINAL NUDGE and MISSED APPROACH. At the same you need horse int his race who stays 4 miles never mind 3m 2f and both horses do exactly that. MISED APPROACH finished 2nd in last year 4 mile race and needs testing ground, while FINAL NUDGE finished 3rd in the Welsh National over further.
I could go on and on about both horses but no need to really. Both stay forever both love the ground and both are well treated in the handicap. E/W.
4:50 Cheltenham – CAP SOLEIL 11/2 WITHOUT LAURINA – 1 POINT WIN
Do I think Laurina wins this race. Yes I do but what a price for CAP SOLEIL to finish 2nd at 11/2. Feral O’Brien absolutely loves this horse and just looking through the field she is more than capable of beating the rest fo these. She has only lost one race in her career and has one win to here name from one start at Cheltenham. I think the track will suit as she looks like she wants undulations. Fairly confident she will be involved. WIN.
2:50 Cheltenham – BLEU BERRY 28/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
Next up is BLEU BERRY who will be ridden by Paul Townend another master in these handicaps. You only have to go back to his ride last year on Arctic Fire to see how good he is at decision making and then in 2015 when Wicklow Brave won the County Hurdle. Two fantastic rides I am sure the horses may have lost the race had other jockeys been on board. BLEU BERRY ran up three consecutive wins last year including a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse. He was then sent to the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival finishing 5th the likes of Bacardys, Finians Oscar, Death Duty and Let’s Dance. That is four high class horses so Willie Mullins obviously thinks this horse is talented. I think he could turn out to be better than his handicap mark of 142 and he has only been seen once this season when finishing down the field in a handicap at Leopardstown when travelling well before blowing up. He needed that run and the cobwebs will be blown off and I expect a big run here. Willie Mullins is a master at getting horses spot on for one race and again I think this has been the plan for sometime. Massive value at the prices. E/W.
2:10 Cheltenham – PRESENTING PERCY 11/4 generally – 2 POINTS WIN
That leaves us with PRESENTING PERCY who was a winner of the Petemps Hurdle last season. He clearly like it around Cheltenham and is the perfect horse to come from off the pace. He will be held up by Davey Russell and make his move after the 3rd last fence to take closer order. PRESENTING PERCY stays forever and won the a handicap chase carrying top weight 2 starts back, over 3m 5f. This is the type of horse you are going to need to win this race. A hardened horse who jumps, stays and is happy to get in a battle. Come the bottom of the hill he will have his ears pricked still motoring up it instead of crying enough. Patrick Kelly is a magician at getting them ready for 1 day only and that will be the case with PRESENTING PERCY. You could argue that he is good enough to run in a Gold Cup considering he was only beaten by 1 length against the now gold 3rd favourite Our Duke. To get within a length of that horse and do it as a novice says a lot about the battle hardened horse. PRESENTING PERCY is a typical future Gold Cup horse and has all the right attributes to win this race and win it comfortably. I actually make him a 7/4 chance now I have gone into a bit more detail.
4:50 Cheltenham – RATHVINDEN 7/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I couldn’t leave RATHVINDEN out as I always kept coming back to him. Patrick Mullins takes the ride and he is one of the best jockeys in the race. He does have a slight question mark over whether he will stay the trip but I am willing to take a chance on the basis he is probably one of the more naturally talented horses in the race. He won 2 races at the start of the season by a combined total of 38 lengths and then chased home Death Duty in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse only beaten by 3 lengths. He was brought down on his next start in another Grade 1 at Leopardstown, when still holding every chance. His latest start was in the Grade 1 Flogas Novice Chase where he was simply outclassed. In total he has run in three Grade 1 races so Willie Mullins obviously holds him in high regard. It is also worth point out that back at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival he chased home Faugheen in 3rd place so he has showed a liking to Cheltenham in the past. The ground will also be appreciated. As listed above the distance is a slight concern but if he can get into a nice rhythm and get some cover he certainly has the ability. The question will be what he finds up the hill. E/W.
2:40 Wincanton – MOABIT 9/4 Ladbrokes – 1.5 POINTS WIN
That leaves MOABIT who in my book make the 13/8 favourite. He has gone up the handicap after his impressive win last time out, to a mark of 131. This is not ideal but he has won off 133 in the best and it was not so long ago that he looked a very good horse. He is only a 6 year old and looked to have turned a corner last time out when winning at Chepstow 2 weeks ago. Bryony Frost takes the ride again and she is just magic in the saddle and worth every bit of the 3lb claim she gets. She thinks logically of how to ride a horse and is one very intelligent. She has only ridden this horse once when winning last time and she often strikes up decent partnerships with horses, which again leads me to believe he can improve under her guidance. Trainer Paul Nicholls is obviously keen to get another run as well as it was less than 2 weeks since he won at Chepstow. Despite carrying top weight I think MOABAIT is going to be a very hard horse to beat tomorrow. WIN.
15:40 Fontwell – DICOSIMO 11/1 Paddy Power – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I will start with DICOSIMO who used to be trained by Willie Mullins but changed to Warren Greatrex in November for owners Jill and Robin Eynon (same owners as Cole Harden). DICOSIMO has had 2 runs for his new trainer, one of which was a Grade 2 at Ascot and was way out of his depth. The other in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. He was pulled up on his last start but judging by the Wind Operation just 11 days later he clearly had breathing issues. Now he has had the wind operation and 2 1/2 months to recover his handicap mark of 132 looks very winnable off. This is a horse who was rated 150 just a couple of seasons ago and has come down the handicap by 18lb. The jockey booking of Richard Johnson also looks very interesting. This is not the best handicap race and although he has to carry top weight, catching him first time up since his wind op, could be the answer. 11/1 is a big price taking everything into consideration. E/W.
15:50 Southwell – GOOD TRADITION 4/1 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
Hammersly Lake is the favourite here and over jumps he would easily win this but on the Fibresand it is a different ball game. Hammersly Lake is what you call a proper National Hunt Horse so although the likeliest winner, he may be worth taking on at odds of 4/6. The horse to take him on with is GOOD TRADITION who used to be trained by Dermot Weld on the flat horse who is now trained by Donald McCain. He has had 10 starts over hurdles for his latest trainer but the form I am focusing on is his form on the flat when trained by Dermot Weld. He has the highest mark in the field on the flat and if this was a handicap he would have to give weight away to the whole field. In his prime on the flat he was rated 104 and the fact he runs off level weights and has experience on the flat tells me he is worth the bet at 4/1. Harry Stock is also on board and he claims a valuable 7lb which basically makes him bottom weight. GOOD TRADITION is entitled to be a bit shorter and the back of the few things mentioned above. WIN.
15:30 Warwick – COBRA DE MAI 4/1 Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
COBRA DE MAI is an interesting runner here. He rattled up 3 wins from his first 4 starts over fences between 1st May and 3rd of October, quickly going up the handicap. On his next 2 starts he run at Cheltenham finishing 5th behind Foxtail Hill and then 4th behind Benatar at Ascot. That horse is now rated 149 after beating the highly regarded Finian’s Oscar so the form looks solid. COBRA DE MAI has not been seen since but on the 13th November went for a wind operation. I imagine he has missed the winter because he needs better ground and as described above, the ground is described as good to soft with no rain forecast. Considering this horse started his season back in May I am sure the rest over the winter was appreciated and I expect the wind operation will have a positive affect. If he was getting beat by only 7 lengths to a horse like Benatar, with wind issues, imagine what he could be like if it is sorted? He is now rated 133 which is very winnable off. He won off 134 just 2 starts back so could be very well treated. WIN.
16:05 Huntingdon – RENE’S GIRL 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
When I opened up the betting I was expecting RENE’S GIRL to be around the 7/4 mark so I was very happy to see the 5/2 available. I am pretty sure she will go off a lot shorter tomorrow. Her main dangers for me are Got Away who could improve but was given the run of the race last time out and won’t be allowed to lead here, as both RENES GIRL and Desert Queen like to front run. The other danger is Desert Queen but she always seems to gas out at the end of her races and cries wolf. I would also want at least 5/1 if I was to get involved with Desert Queen. With RENES GIRL I have been visual impressed with 2 of her 3 starts this season. She has won her 2 races on bridle and the one that she did lose was because it was too short a trip. A trainer error rather than the horses fault. RENE’S GIRL is also a very good jumper and I think Huntingdon will suit a lot. I noticed she has jumped slightly right on her last 3 starts, all of which on left handed tracks. Huntingdon is a right handed track which will only enhance her chances and make sure she jumps true and straight. WIN.
16:15 Meydan – FOLKSWOOD 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
As good as the favourite Leshlaa was here last time out he didn’t run against anything as good as FOLKSWOOD who I rate very highly. I think the 11/4 available is a cracking bet. FOLKSWOOD form at Meydan last season read 212 so we know he likes the course. Over the autumn he was also in great form with a win in Australia and chasing home the exceptional Winx in 3rd place, before finishing 5th of 12 (beaten 2 lengths) at Flemington Park in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes. He was even sent off favourite for that Group 1 last time out so is down in class with this being a Group 3. FOLKSWOOD is also drawn in 1 and the horse likes to be prominent which will help him to get a decent position. William Buick is on board and he rides Meydan as good as anyone. May be a strip fitter for the run but I make him a 9/4 chance which means we are slightly ahead of the traders. WIN.
15:35 Ascot – WAITING PATIENTLY 5/2 with Paddy Power – 2 POINT WIN
I rate WAITING PATIENTLY very highly and what a fitting tribute it would be if he could win this race for trainer Malcolm Jefferson who sadly passed away, and whose funeral was today. His wife Ruth Jefferson now trains the horse (and Mount Mews) and I believe it is written that this horse wins this race. He is unbeaten in 5 starts over fences and won a listed race at Kempton last time out. He is a very good jumper and has a high cruising speed. The ground will be absolutely perfect and I also think Ascot will play to his strengths. We will see tomorrow but I genuinely believe this horse is special when he gets cut in the ground. WIN.
14:25 Sandown – MIDNIGHT TUNE 4/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
MIDNIGHT TUNE is a solid bet here. She has the best form in the race after defeating Ron’s Dream 2 starts back in a handicap. She ran in a Grade 2 last time and although she was convincingly beaten by La Bague Au Roi I think she is better than that showing. MIDNIGHT TUNE should go very close. WIN.
15:00 Sandown – RATHLIN ROSE 9/4 generally – 1 POINT WIN
RATHLIN ROSE won this race last year under the same jockey Guy Disney so both know how to win around here. He actually comes into the race is decent form after finishing a respectable 6th in the Welsh National. The fact both horse and jockey know what to expect will pay dividends in my opinion. WIN.
14:25 Kelso – CYRUS DARIUS 3/1 with Coral – 1 POINT WIN
CYRUS DARIUS won this race last season off a handicap mark of 145. He comes here rated 142 this season so must have a huge chance based on that alone. This will be his fist start hurdles this season and judging by his last efforts over fences, the smaller obstacles will be appreciated. He is a very classy horse on his day and even run in last years Champion Hurdle. Think he should be around the 9/4 mark so I am happy with the 3/1 available. WIN.
14:45 Leicester – COLIN’S BROTHER 3/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
I really fancy COLIN’S BROTHER here especially with Jamie Bargary claiming 3lb. That means he carries under 11st and with the condition quite testing I expect COLIN’S BROTHER to get home better than all of these. He done all his best work when winning at Ludlow just before Christmas and although he hasn’t been seen for a couple of months, I have noticed he has had a number of entries so we know he is fit. I still think he has more improvement to come. WIN.
15:00 Sandown – TOPOFTHEGAME 11/2 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
I think this horse will improve massively for the step up in trip. He finished off very strongly on his last start in a hot handicap at Kempton. He is now rated 142 but I think he could still be well handicapped especially over this trip. Paul Nicholls thinks an awful lot of TOPOFTHEGAME and being by Flemensfirth he will love the conditions. Quietly confident he wins this race. WIN.
13:50 Wincanton – VALHALLA 4/1 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
Only 3 runners here and at 4/1 VALHALLA is a great bet. This is his 5th start of the season over fences and he has got better with each run. He was a winner at Exeter a month ago and is going in the right direction. Over hurdles he is rated 137 so the mark of 127 looks lenient. Todays 2nd favourite is making his debut over fences so is there to be shot at and the favourite looks a false one to me which I wouldn’t be touching at the prices. That leaves VALHALLA who is rated outsider of the field when really he should be around the 7/4 mark. WIN.
15:35 Wincanton – GRAND VISION 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
GRAND VISION could put these to the test in bad ground. He loves to front run and his jumping last time out was electric. If he can into a rhythm he could have most of this field struggling. The 2m 4f is a bit on the short side for him but in the ground and running from the front, it is going to be a 3 mile test. I expect a bold show and once again a horse who should be shorter. I make him around the 10/3 mark so very happy with 5/1. WIN.
13:50 Cheltenham – FRODON 8/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power – 0.5 POINTS E/W
It is hard to believe FRODON is only a 6 year old as it seems like he has been around forever. He was the winner of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup when just a 4 year old. That was his last visit to Cheltenham so we know he likes the course. The ground was also similar to what he is going to encounter today. We have Bryony Frost on board who has been riding out of her skin this season and she takes a valuable 5lb off his back. It was only 2 starts ago this horse was finishing 8 lengths behind Might Bite so we know he has a touch of class and if he can get into a nice rhythm he is sure to go close. E/W.
13:50 Ascot – LA BAGUE AU ROI 11/10 Ladbrokes – 3 POINT WIN
This horse should be 4/7, the evens available is an absolute steal. She has one danger in this race and that is Dusky Legend who I don’t think will get 3 miles on heavy ground, in a million years. Bar a fall LA BAGUE AU ROI wins. She already beat Dusky Legend last season and our selection has improved considerably since then. She was stepped up in trip last time out and stayed every yard of the 3 miles. She beat a very good horse in Jer’s Girl and something would surely have to go a miss for this one to get beat. WIN.
14:30 Lingfield – KACHY 7/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
Front runner KACHY is drawn 9 of 9 which is not ideal but when I looked a bit deeper into the race most horses like to be held up. I don’t think this will affect the horse getting the lead he needs and it will take a good horse to catch him. KACHY is rated 105 but the handicapper and does have to concede weight to the field. For me he is head and shoulders above these and the fact he is going to most probably get a soft lead bodes well for the horse. This is a Class 2 so he is down in trip as he has been running consistently well in a much better races. WIN.
14:05 Kempton – WAITING PATIENTLY 2/1 BETFRED – 1.5 POINTS WIN
True to his name Malcolm Jefferson has been patient with WAITING PATIENTLY this season making sure he picks the right race for the horse. He has really been looked after as connections think they have a special horse on their hands. He has had 4 runs over fences and has won all 4 races. He is a super jumper and has not put a foot wrong. He firmly put Politologue in his place last year and that is a horse I rate highly. I think it will take a very good performance to get this horse beat and I think we may be a high class horse. The fact he has been looked after so well with pay divendends with his future. WIN.
14:25 Warwick – BLACK IVORY 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
This is the type of race where I am always looking towards the bottom of the handicap. It is a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at Cheltenham. If you are running in this race you are looking to get qualified for the race. The reason I look to the bottom of the handicap is because you realistically need a handicap mark of at least 135 to get in the race. Because of that any horse rated lower than that mark you know will trying their nuts off as any lower and you won’t get in the race. It also means that the horses nearer the top will not want to ruin the handicap mark if they are around the 135 or more mark. BLACK IVORY fits the bill perfectly. He is rated 126 so needs to come up the handicap at least 9lb. Win this race well and you pretty much get the mark you want. Malcolm Jefferson is as shrewd as they come and I imagine he has been planning this for sometime. BALCK IVORY was an impressive winner last time out on heavy ground beating a highly regarded Le Breuil by 6 lengths. He was raised 6lb for that but I think he should’ve gone up more in the handicap. Malcolm Jefferson is using Jamie Hamilton who claims a further 3lb which pretty much puts him bottom weight. I expect a big run and I think you will see this horse go off around the 11/4 mark. WIN.
14:40 Kempton – WILLIAM HENRY 13/2 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I really rate this horse and can forgive his last run as it was his debut over fences. He is now back over hurdles and I expect WILLIAM HENRY to be involved here. The star from last week James Bowen is on board and he claims a valuable 5lb. He is a very good horse and he showed this last season with 2 wins and two 2nds. The three 2nds were against Pingshou and Wholestone who are both top class horses. I expect WILLIAM HENRY to travel smoothly through the race and the 5lb claim will come into play in the last part of the race. It is worth pointing out that he was a 17 length winner at Kempton a few seasons ago so obviously likes the course and going right handed. E/W.
14:25 Sandown – SUMMERVILLE BOY 16/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I think SUMMERVILLE BOY is a huge price at 16/1. The favourite in this race is Western Ryder who our selection finished 3rd to at Cheltenham last time out. That day SUMMERVILLE BOY was sent off 9/4 and Western Ryder 5/2 so I can’t understand why the prices are massively different here with our selection only going down by 5 lengths. I don’t think Noel Fehily gave the horse a great ride either and we have regular jockey AP Heskin back on board today. He is the retained rider for Tom George so will know the horse well, having ridden in training and on the course. Whether he wins or not is another matter but one thing for sure is he is way overpriced. E/W.
15:55 Chepstow – GOOD BOY BOBBY 6/4 Bet 365 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I was impressed with the way GOOD BOY BOBBY won on his debut at Chepstow 2 months ago. He seemed to hang in the closing stages but still won the race. He is sure to improve for that run and connections have put a hood on him today which should help him concentrate that bit better. He is also by Flemensfirth and his horses always like cut in the ground. The going will be perfect and I expect this horse to win with a bit in hand. WIN.
13:25 Cheltenham – YANWORTH 15/8 generally – 2 POINT WIN
YANWORTH finished 2nd to todays favourite Willoughby Court last time out at Newbury but today he has a 5lb pull at the weights. If YANWORTH didn’t make a mistake last time out he would’ve gone close. He will need to sort his jumping out but at the prices I can’t not bet a classy horse like this. The ground will be no problem and he has won around Cheltenham previously. WIN.
15:10 Cheltenham – WHOLESTONE 7/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
WHOLESTONE has got to turn form around with todays favourite Colins Sister but he absolutely loves Cheltenham. His form reads 12113 at the course and thats includes a 3rd the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle. The ground will be no problem as he won on soft ground here twice last season.