2000 Guineas Preview

With JPW Racing Tipster

We’ve prepared a 2000 Guineas Preview ahead of the first classic of the flat season. This race has been won by some great horses in recent years which include the likes of Frankel and and Sea The Stars just to name a few.

I don’t think we have anything of that calibre in this field but Frankel does one horse called Elarqam.

The favourite for the race is Gustav Klimt and at the time of writing (2nd May 1pm), trainer Aidan O’Brien has 4 horses entered for this race. Saxon Warrior, US Navy Flag and Murillo are his other 3 horses.

Mark Johnston has 2 horses entered with Elarqam and Cardsharp.

All the other trainers have 1 entry.

The weather after today is warm and sunny so I am pretty confident we will be seeing a good ground 2000 Guineas.

I will no go through the field starting with the favourite and give my thoughts on each horses chances.

I will have a star rating next to each horse and at the end offer my conclusion:

 

GUSTAV KLIMT

Trainer – A P O’Brien
Sire – Gallileo
Dam – Massarra

GUSTAV KLIMT at the time of writing is the 2/1 favourite. He went straight to the head of the market after winning at Leopardstown just over 2 weeks ago. He won going away at the line but I was not convinced the performance. He beat a horse called Imaging who although went into the race fit, after winning his first start of the season, you have to question how good that horse is. GUSTAV KLIMT won a Group 2 at Newmarket back in July but this course is the Rowley Mile which is different to the July Course. He has a great chance and is likely to come on a lot for his first run. He finishes his races well but he don’t travel that well in between. He clearly has the potential to be a very good horse but on what I have seen the 2/1 is not for.

GUSTAV KLIMT = 3 STARS

 

MASAR

Trainer – Charlie Appleby
Sire – New Approach
Dam – Khawlah

MASAR was very impressive 9 length winner of the Craven Stakes her 2 weeks ago. Visually he was very good and he went from 33/1 to 5/1 for this race. He beat White Mocha that day with another of todays runners Roaring Lion back in 3rd. He did get the run of the race that day something that he won’t get here. He clearly loves the course but this is another step up in class. The one negative is he was terrible at Meydan 2 months ago when sent off odds on favourite. Had he not run that race I would probably been inclined to think he has improved massively as a 3 year old but instead I am thinking other did not run a race in the Craven Stakes. The time was pretty decent and if the same horse turns up he will be involved. With MASAR I don’t think he has any more improvement to come and his last win was the best we will see. Obviously that is my opinion and he could well improve further but not a horse I would want to back at 5/1, knowing he has run bad races in the past.

MASAR = 3 STARS

 

ELARQAM

Trainer – Mark Johnston
Sire – Frankel
Dam – Attraction

ELARQAM is an absolutely beautifully bred colt who is bred to win a Guineas. He is sired by Frankel who we all know won this race very impressively in 2011 by 6 lengths. His Dam is Attraction who won the 1000 Guineas in 2004. You have a horse here who’s mother and father who have won both classics so he is 100% bred to win a Guineas. The breeding alone tells you the race is absolutely perfect for him. ELARQAM comes here unbeaten in 2 runs one of which was a Group 3 win at this very course in September. The only negative I can find in the horse is his lack of experience but the way he won his 2 races last season was very impressive over 7 furlongs. The further step up in trip will also be appreciated. He has a lovely long stride and we know he handles the dip and the climb at the finish. He has a high chance and despite only having 2 runs, he is a horse who could literally be anything.I am expecting a big run and this is the horse who gets 5 stars for me.

ELARQAM = 5 STARS

 

SAXON WARRIOR

Trainer – A P O’Brien
Sire – Deep Impact
Dam – Maybe

SAXON WARRIOR also comes here unbeaten and was the winner of the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster back in October. He is a very good horse and again is beautifully bred. His Dam ‘Maybe’ finished 3rd in the 1000 guineas and his sire is the great ‘Deep Impact’. My racing brain tells with this horse is he wants further than 1 mile and is more a Derby horse and a St Leger horse as his sire Deep Impact was at his best between 1m 4f and 2m. Now looking through the field and it being his first start of the season he could well get away with it over 1 mile. It is not the strongest renewal and this horse is all class. He travelled very well in the Racing Post Trophy and one thing for sure is if this race ends up in a battle, SAXON WARRIOR will be staying on better than anything. At the prices I would certainly want to be on SAXON WARRIOR over stablemate Gustav Klimt.

SAXON WARRIOR = 4 STARS

 

EXPERT EYE

Trainer – Sir Michael Stoute
Sire – Acclamation
Dam – Exemplify

EXPERT EYE looked an absolute superstar when winning the Group 2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood in August. Unfortunately he has flopped on both starts since. One of which was on this course in October when 9th of 9. On what I seen so far I can’t have him but connections report he is back to best. I am not one to listen to hype from trainers I would rather see it with my own eyes.

EXPERT EYE = 2 STARS

 

ROARING LION

Trainer – John Gosden
Sire – Kittens Joy
Dam – Vioonet

ROARING LION looked very good in the Racing Post Trophy when 2nd to Saxon Warrior in October. Unfortunately he was beaten 9 lengths to Masar 2 weeks ago when sent off 8/12 favourite. It was a big flop and I can’t see how he turn around a 9 length deficit within less than 2 weeks, on exactly the same course.

ROARING LION = 2 STARS

 

What about the rest?

JAMES GARFIELD beat Expert Eye last time out but I can see that form turned around particularly over 1 mile.

US NAVY FLAG could surprise a few here but was firmly put in his place by todays favourite last time out. He does have winning form at the course though with 2 wins from 2 starts.

The only one at a price I can see getting involved is TIP TWO WIN who finished behind Elarqam here back in September in 2nd place. He has since gone to Doha and won 2 valuable prizes and the 40/1 on offer looks a bit big in my opinion.

 

CONCLUSION

I am keen to take on the favourite here. I respect the horse but at 2/1 he is not for me. I am going to approach this race and have a bet on 2 horses to take him on with. I can take the favourite on with two horses and make more profit, than backing the favourite on his own.

The two I am keen to take him on with are ELARQAM and SAXON WARRIOR who are both available at 11/2.

ELARQAM has all the attributes to win a 2000 Guineas with the only negative being his lack of experience. Although he likes experience, his breeding and the way he has won his two races to date, tells me he could potentially be very special. He has course winning form, he has a huge stride and is out of all in the field is the perfect Guineas horse.

I am happy to go in double handed with SAXON WARRIOR as although I think he wants further, he could get away with it here against a mediocre field for a Guineas. He won the Racing Post Trophy like a very good thing last season and in my opinion deserves to be shorter in the market. He will be heading to the derby after this but in the meantime he has every chance of winning this race.

ELARQAM 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
SAXIN WARRIOR 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN

(All prices quoted are of the time of writing, 2nd May 1pm.)

Kind Regards

JPW Racing Tipster

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