3:35 Newmarket
I am sick to death of hearing this week that CHURCHILL ”may not have trained on”. First of all these so called ‘experts’ need to stop clinging on to the fact Air Force Blue didn’t train on last year. Do a bit of research, the breeding could not be any different. Air Force Blue is by War Front who does well with 2 year olds and CHURCHILL is by Galileo who horses 90% of the time will improve from 2 – 3. Next up go back 10 years and see all the Aiden O’Brien horses who have trained on and won this very race. I will list them, Gleneagles, Camelot, Henrythenavigator, George Washington, Footstepsinthesand even Austrailia who placed. These were all ‘talking horses’ who delivered in this race. Nearly all his horses train on, especially the classy types like CHURCHILL. Sorry for the rant but I am fed up of hearing it this week. People trying to make excuses of why they can’t have the horse instead of just saying he has done nothing wrong but the is not for me.
Well I tell you something the price is certainly for me at 11/8 as I think he should be 4/7 and a similar price to what Frankel was when he won the race. My reasoning? Both horses coming into this race were experienced. Both horses won the Dewhurst at this very track.
In a guineas horse, course form is a huge clue and we know CHURCHILL relished the dip. Newmarket suits a well balanced horse and the course will catch half of these inexperienced types out. You also need a horse who stays that bit further and CHURCHILL certainly does that. He has only ever run over 7f and is crying out for a step up in trip. He remains unbeaten and that includes wins in 4 Groups races, 2 of which were Group 1s.
I am not writing off the other horses as they could improve but what is the point in taking 7/2 about Barney Roy who needs to improve massively on what he has done so far. He could improve but you are guessing. You might aswell take the 11/8 about CHURCHILL who is literally bullet proof and should be 4/7 as I said.
The field has it all to do here and I think CHURCHILL is going to turn out to be something special. WIN.
CHURCHILL 11/8 with most bookmakers – 3 POINT WIN
