Stewards Cup Handicap With DG Tips

The Qatar Stewards Cup Handicap

Rounding of Glorious Goodwood on Saturday is their feature handicap The Qatar Stewards Cup Handicap. A notoriously difficult puzzle to solve but a race I am always keen to bet on given the value on offer. For the last two years this race has been won by a three year old, firstly Magical Memory and then Dancing Star for Andrew Balding last year. For the last two years a low draw does seem to be a positive however on a whole the draw bias in this race is more pace related. Not surprising given this race is only over 6f’s on an extremely pace biased track.

Heading the market at the moment is the Roger Charlton trained Projection, he finished 3rd last time out in the Wokingham and must hold major claims. He is closely followed in the market by Danzeno for Mick Appleby, Polybius for David Simcock and one of only two three year olds in the line up Sir Dancealot for David Elsworth. All four horses have high draws however I have a distinct feeling a high draw is going to be a negative on Saturday. There is no pace draw high whatsoever, the main pace angles have middle draws (Stake Acclaim st14, Eastern Impact st11 and Lancelot Du Lac st15) and having looked through videos of this race going back 10 years I am fairly confident they will edge over slightly in favour of low draws. That suddenly makes the market very interesting and I will run through some of more interesting runners at bigger prices below.

Al Qahwa is drawn centrally near all the pace and should get a good tow into this. Recent rain is very much in his favour and he ran a cracker of this mark just last week to finish 2nd. He will probably find a few too good but at a big price he strikes me as a solid each way bet. Danny Tudhope rides and that is significant given O’Meara has three in here. As the stable’s first pick I think the 25s on offer is good value.

Aeolus is really interesting in here. He too has a middle draw and he is now back down to a very workable mark. He has shaped with promise on his last two starts and 6f’s on this downhill track will surely suit him well. He has cheek-pieces on for the first time which I am fairly confident will eek out improvement. He has always struck me as a horse who thinks about it a bit too much and cheek-pieces should help him concentrate. He should be able to track a good pace in here and he strikes me as a very solid outside bet.

 

Growl is perhaps the classiest horse in this race on bits and pieces of form. He is best when able to track a strong pace and that does look assured. He is drawn low/central which is a plus and although he isn’t the best handicapped in here he is in cracking form. Beaten just 2.5l’s by Harry Angel last time out he may be tough to beat if bringing a similar performance to the table today. He’s a double figure price which surprises me and shouldn’t be underestimated.

How we bet: Aeolus 0.5pts E/W 25-1 Betfred (Time Of Writing)

                        Growl 0.5pts E/W 12-1 Skybet (Time Of Writing)

Good Luck

DG Tips

Posted in Weekly Preview | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

King George VI Preview With Architect Tips

King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes Preview

The King George Stakes is run over the 1m3f trip at Ascot and has produced some top-class winners such as MONTJEU, GALILEO, HURRICANE RUN, NATHANIEL, TAGHROODA, HARBINGER, CONDUIT and many, many more. The list of winners are exceptional. This time around the ever so tough HIGHLAND REEL goes for back-to-back titles following last year’s success, can he do it? I will now go into detail on the 2017 runners.

DESERT ENCOUNTER (David Simcock/Sean Levey)

Developing into a very smart horse and is yet to finish outside the top-three in 11 starts since his debut. He’s a Listed winner over C&D and ran a blinder last time to finish third behind BARNEY ROY and ULYSSES in the Coral Eclipse. He likes this track, will handle the ground and is likely to run his race again. But I can’t see this former handicapper winning a Group 1 today against this high-class field and I will be shocked if he can even reach the frame let alone win the race. He’s worth opposing for me until dropped back in class.

HIGHLAND REEL (Aidan Obrien/Ryan Moore)

Tough as old boots and he simply doesn’t know when to quit, so tough in a battle and is one of the best front-runners I have ever witnessed. A six-time Group 1 winner in three different continents and his course form around at Ascot reads 112. He clearly likes it at this venue and everytime doubters write him off, he comes back at wins at the highest level. There is no doubting his class, ability, toughness and charisma. But, my one concern is the fact the ground will be a major problem because all of his winning form has come on better ground and his record on good to soft or worse is very poor. I have my doubts about him on this going and this could well be one race too many having had such a hard season. His class might get into the frame, but he’s definitely vulnerable on this ground against other top-class horses, who will like the slower surface. Also five-year-olds have a poor record in this race, which is another negative for him.

IDAHO (Aidan Obrien/Seamie Heffernan)

IDAHO is the full-brother to HIGHLAND REEL and I am keen on him running a big race. He’s yet to bag a Group 1 success but he’s run well in them having been placed in the English and Irish Derby back in 2015 and probably would have won the St Leger but for unseating at a crucial stage. There are various reasons why I like this. Firstly, he’s battle hardened horse, has natural pace and will love these conditions. Finally he put it all together when landing the Hardwick Stakes Group 2 at Royal Ascot in great style. He comes into the race full of confidence and he is the perfect age as four-year-old horses have a great record in this. We know he’s got proven C&D form, handles all types of ground and has experience on his side for this kind of race. I don’t mind if either Ryan Moore or Seamie Heffernan rides because the latter won him last time. Surely he must run well here with everything in his favour.

JACK HOBBS (John Gosden/William Buick)

JACK HOBBS is clearly a fragile horse but when he’s good, he’s very good. Connections were quick to use reasons as to why he flopped last time and ought to be well suited on this ground with proven high-class form to his name. Twice he finished behind GOLDEN HORN before landing the Irish Derby in breathtaking style and he was a close-up third behind ALMANZOR and FOUND in the Champion Stakes last year at this track and filled the same position the year before on very similar ground to today’s. He reappeared this year in the Dubai Sheema Classic on slower ground where he destroyed a high-class field including HIGHLAND REEL and POSTPONED. I am sure John Gosden wouldn’t be running him here without thinking he can make a serious impact. He’s a top-class racehorse and I am sure we will see him put in a better performance. But, at the prices he does come with risks attached and being a five-year-old is a huge negative for this race.

MAVERICK WAVE (John Gosden/Graham Lee)

Likely to be used a pacemaker for JACK HOBBS and at odds 100/1 is one to avoid. He would need the biggest performance of his life to even reach the frame here despite running a near career-best last time when finishing a good fourth over 1m2f here at Royal Ascot in a tough handicap.

MY DREAM BOAT (Clive Cox/Adam Kirby)

Definitely an interesting runner who usually comes late on the scene in his races and he has two solid performances to his name at this venue. Notably, when landing the Prince of Wales’s Stakes beating Arc winner FOUND on soft ground over the 1m2f trip. He also finished fourth in the Champion Stakes last year coming from so far back. However, I think he needs at least 2m these days and the ground doesn’t look like it would be soft enough for him and he would need to improve massively on what he’s shown this season. Although he ran well in a Group 1 in France last time on good ground when fourth behind ZARAK. Adam Kirby has a good record on him but the pair will need everything to fall apart up front if he’s going to land a second Group 1 success. He’s still an each-way player at overpriced odds though but I’m concerned that he’s starting to look exposed at the top level despite the fact he is still running well.

 

ULYSSES (Sir Michael Stoute/Jim Crowley)

No doubt this young progressive four-year-old is the dark horse in the race. He’s improved with each start and finally gained his first Group 1 success last time when landing the Coral Eclipse at Sandown over 1m2f. Jim Crowley have him a sublime ride and he came there on the bridle 2f out upsides BARNEY ROY, but many would have expected him to power away and win easily. The simple fact is he didn’t, and looked as though he only just does enough when hitting the front. That’s a worry against stronger company today and he’s also stepping up to 1m3f, which I think is a negative. I know he won last time but he’s not certain to travel with ease like he did that day and this ground is so much different. I have full respect for ULYSSES and he might run into a place but I doubt he will complete the Group 1 double as he had a hard race that day, especially when BARNEY ROY chucked everything at him and he seemed to empty out at the line and only just held on. I can’t underestimate him here, but he would need to improve again if he’s to win this stronger race.

SIXTIES SONG (Dassie/Gérard Mosse)

SIXTIES SONG maybe a 66/1 chance, but he claimed top-level victories in Chile and Argentina. Connections hold this horse in high regard and they travel a really long way with there star performer. I just think he would have to be out of the ordinary to win this Group 1 on first try in the UK. He’s clearly a top-class horse in his own country but this race demands a lot more againt the best of the best. I’d be hopeful to see him finish in the first six home, but I doubt he will go close to winning this despite coming a long way for obvious good reasons.

BENBATL (Saeed Bin Suroor/Oisin Murphy) 

Saeed Bin Suroor last won this race back in 2004 with DOYEN and they solely rely on BENBATL, who has some pretty good form to his name having ran well behind PERMIAN before coming from so far back in the Epsom Derby to claim 5th place having been 18th position turning into the home straight. He was given an awful lot to do and would have gone close if ridden closer to the pace. I like the way he made amends when a commanding winner in a Group 3 at Royal Ascot when ridden more prominently but again, this one needs to improve if he’s to land this competitive Group 1 against proven top-class racehorses. He might turn out to be a Group 1 horse, but he would need to improve a ton to figure in this. However, connections must think he’s a high-class horse in the making, taking on the best today and I wouldn’t put it past him reaching the frame at double-figure odds under Oisin Murphy, who gave him a peach of a ride last time out.

 

ENABLE (John Gosden/Frankie Dettori)

Last but not least it’s the triple Oaks winner filly ENABLE, who could become one of the greatest Fillies of all time if she wins this race. John Gosden must feel she is something special to even supplement her for this having won the Irish Oaks two weeks ago five lengths without breaking sweat. She recieves weight all around which gives her an advantage and she looks the type to keep on improving. I still don’t think we have seen the best of her yet but this race may come too soon and we aren’t sure what it took out if her at the Curragh last time despite it looking so easy. I personally think she will take a lot of beating if turning up in the same form but at her odds currently, surely there is better value elsewhere and I would rather be backing something at better price. She might win this easily and become a superstar, but there is no value at 6/5 against top-class proven globetrotters.

CONCLUSION 

A top-class renewal but I don’t have a strong opinion on the race as it would be pointless wasting bank profit on something I am not 100% confident selecting with a lot of question marks surrounding the field on the ground, recent form and other bits and pieces. Remember, you don’t need to bet for the sake of it and I will be sitting back enjoying this classy Group 1 unfold. A must watch whether you bet on the race of not. I hope that the race will turn out to be something special. Best of luck.

Architect Tips

 

Posted in Weekly Preview | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

DG Tips Previews the Big Race of the Weekend

Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes – Newbury 5f 34y

The Super Sprint is perhaps the most difficult punting race of the entire flat season. A big field with lots of good value on offer is usually the sort of race I adore. It is somewhat surprising then that I absolutely loathe this race from a punting perspective. The facts are we know extremely little about the horses in this race and that makes the race a complete minefield. On the other hand it is a great race to watch and it will as always prove a very fruitful form line to follow.

25 rip-roaring 2 year old speed machine’s are set to start on Saturday, pace, draw bias and position will all play a factor in what is going to be a commentator’s nightmare. Mrs Danvers went off as the 9-2 favourite last year and fairly romped home, the current favourite this year and heading the market is Maggies Angel.

The Favourite

Trained by Richard Fahey and the choice of Paul Hanagan she is quite clearly a well thought of 2 year old. Her form stacks up fairly well and she deserves her place at the top of market. The issue I have with this horse is that she shaped as if another furlong on top of 6f’s would suit rather than a furlong less which is what she gets here. At such a short price I am happy to take her on.

Other Pretenders?

Others towards the top of the market are Corinthia’s Knight for rookie trainer Archie Watson, Mother of Dragons for the in-form Joseph Tuite and Debutante’s Ball for Stan Moore. Corinthia Knight brings some creditable form to the table and he is speedy so should be well suited to this race. Mother of Dragon was held up at Royal Ascot but ran on well enough to suggest she could be competitive here while Debutante’s Ball was drawn wrong at Ascot before running well enough in a group 3 abroad. They all have solid claims however for me Clive Cox has a really good crop of two year olds this year. We saw just that at Royal Ascot with Heartache and Prince of the Dark and one of his two year olds looks well worth a small each way play in here at such a big price.

That horse is Swing out Sister, perhaps not an obvious choice given Cox’s other runner is much better fancied by the market however the main reason for such price disparity is because Adam Kirby rides Snazzy Jazzy. Adam Kirby struggles to do 9-0, he could never get down to 8-6 to ride Swing out Sister so the fact he rides Snazzy Jazzy means absolutely nothing. If anything the fact Cox still runs Swing out Sister speaks volumes to me about her chances. Her debut performance promised a lot and given how green she was it is reasonable to assume she has a lot more to offer. The experience will have done her good and of 8-6 she is handily weighted. She’s a huge price and is worth chancing in what is a very tough race to predict.

Overpriced Picks?

Another who looks overpriced is McBride’s runner Onefootinparadise. McBride sent out Spiritual Lady last year who ran a huge race off bottom weight. This horse runs for the same owners, carries bottom weight once again and at 33s generally she could well outrun her odds. Her form stacks up and it is notable that she has got closer to winning with every start. High draws have done well here over the last few years so stall 16 could be a plus and off such a low weight she rates a lively outsider.

How we bet:
Swing out Sister 0.25pts E/W 25-1 widely available
Onefootinparadise 0.25pts E/W 33-1 widely available

Good Luck

DG Tips

Posted in Weekly Preview | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

DG Tips – Betting Hell – Getting Banned By Bookies?

DG Tips – Betting Hell – Getting Banned By Bookies?

 

Being banned or limited by bookmakers, a few tips to help keep those accounts open for longer.

If you are a successful long term punter then you are most likely to have experienced being banned by your bookmaker. I remember the first time it happened to me and it is somewhat flattering, fast forward another year and three more banned accounts it does become extremely frustrating. Horse Racing is a tough game as it is however being banned makes things twice as hard. You’ll have to take a cut on prices, you will have to move to the exchanges and you will undoubtedly find betting a tad more difficult.

It’s a question you get asked a lot as a tipster, how do I stop my accounts being banned?

The truth is there is no real answer. If your tipster is doing well then you are doing well and if you are doing well then the likelihood of you getting banned becomes quite high. There is however some tips you can use to keep those accounts open for longer. The end result is most probably going to be the same but if you can extend your time using bookmaker’s accounts then it is ultimately going to be a plus.

1. Spread your bets while keeping them rounded

This is for me the most important tip I can give. As tipsters we are constantly telling clients to spread their bets. If your staking plan amounts up to £50 per pt then spreading that amount out with a few different bookmakers is ultimately going to keep attention away from you. There is however a key feature with spread betting that a lot of bookies monitor and that is percentage bets. For example a bet of £22.08 and then another bet at £11.18 is going to bring more attention upon you from bookmakers than rounded bets (£20.00, £10.00). It is a feature they look out for and if you don’t round your bets they are far more likely to take note and ban your account

2. Place outrageous accumulators

Basically bookmakers love a mug, they love a customer chasing unrealistic money with an unrealistic bet. Act like a mug, throw in a few idiotic accumulators and they will ultimately want to keep you on side. Every Saturday I place an accumulator that includes horses at huge odds, football teams who have a strong likelihood of losing and maybe a golfer at 50-1. Dabbling into other sports is an area I will discuss later but including a variation in an accumulator gives the impression you are not a professional in one area. Bookmakers hate professionals and love a mug. Walk the line closely while still making a profit and you are far more likely to avoid being banned.

3. Dabble in other areas

As mentioned above dabble into other areas. If you are consistently making a profit in one area i.e. horse racing, then it is in your best interest to consistently bet on other sports. I’m a big fan of golf, football and boxing so putting a few bets on per week even if they win is going to take attention away from your horse racing profit in the long term. It isn’t going to totally mask it but it may just camouflage it for a bit.

4. Limit your withdrawals

This is a feature that has been long talked about. I’m in two minds about it if I’m honest; withdrawing money from your account shouldn’t bring any attention towards you. It’s your money so what’s the issue. But bookmakers have to pay some sort of charge so it is ultimately an annoyance to them if you always withdrawing money. The two do however go together; if you are always winning then you will always be withdrawing money. A catch 22 situation in reality, one thing you can do is withdraw money into a Paypal account as this comes with no charge for the bookmakers which will in essence please their financial brains.

5. Go in play just for a day

Bookies hate people who bet in-play but bare with me because going in-play now and again will give the impression that you are doing this for fun rather than as a professional. Most of time you will get a better price than the horse went off at and as a result it is sometimes a profitable tactic to use.

6. Use your head

A lot of people get carried away with winning money. I can’t blame them we all love making some extra cash and the more we can do that the better but be smart about it. If you are always winning then bookmakers will shut you down. Throw in some losing bets and switch to an account that hasn’t been doing all that well. Take as much attention away from the winning as you possibly can.

 

7. Avoid using free bet offers

Free bet offers are promotion material for mug punters. If you are constantly exploiting these into winning slips then bookies will either stop sending offers to you or flag up your account as exploiting the system which will get you closed down very quickly.

8. Change your timing

I’ve left this until the end because it is a difficult feature to employ. I guess being able to predict how the market will move will undoubtedly make this feature easier, however the point is quite simply stop putting bets on at exactly the same time. If a tipster sends over selections at 7pm every night and you place your bets at 7.10pm every single night it is not only going to bring attention to you but also the tipster you use. If a tipster says this will come in for support then by all means take the price but if it’s an outsider that the price is most probably last a while on then wait until the next morning. Putting bets on at different times will appear as though the bets aren’t following a professional strategy.

Thanks

DG Tips.

Posted in HOT TOPIC | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

John Smiths Cup Preview With Architect Tips

JOHN SMITHS CUP PREVIEW 

A competitive handicap run over the 1m2f trip at York racecourse and it’s formerly named the Magnet Cup. This race can be a tricky one to solve due to the draw and horses who are coming here on the back of a good run. There is a lot of value on offer for this race and I will go into detail on the favourite and my personal opinion on some leading contenders for this year’s running.

 

FAVOURITE 

SIXTIES GROOVE 

SIXTIES GROOVE heads the market here and he’s a pretty consistent handicapper for a four-year-old. His mark has gone from 63 all the way up to 98 in the space of twelve months, which has included finishing an eye-catching fourth of 16 runners in the Rowley Cup over 1m4f at Newmarket before winning the Middle distance Handicap at Kempton over 1m3f. He finished a respectable seventh in the Investec mile at Epsom over 1m but found the trip on the short side and was never able to land a blow. I did like the way he shaped last time over 1m3f at Royal Ascot in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes when fifth of 19 runners and his mark remains unchanged today. But, he’s only around 13/2 in the market for today’s race and he steps back down in trip, which I think is a massive negative because he looks as though he needs a lot further. His odds look a little skinny for a race of this nature and there is better value elsewhere.

LEADING CONTENDERS 

VICTORY BOND

VICTORY BOND has a touch of class and connections must think an awful lot of him to supplement him for this competitive race. He did show some quality form last season and finished a creditable sixth in last year’s Group 2 Dante stakes on only his third ever start. He disappointed in a Group 3 in France but bounced back to best this season when a very good third of 17 runners in the Hambleton Handicap at this venue over 1m. He would needed the run but he stayed on strongly all the way to the line to only be beaten around two lengths. VICTORY BOND has only been raised 2lbs and he looks sure to improve on his seasonal debut and make a big impact.

UAE PRINCE 

UAE PRINCE has long been held in high regard by ROGER VARIAN and he won easily over 1m3f on his second start before finishing a luckless sixth over 1m4f next time in a competitive handicap as he suffered major interference before coming home strongly. UAE PRINCE won on his seasonal debut over 1m1f at Ripon in a class 3 before only finishing fifth of 9 runners at Ascot last time in a Listed race. However, he’s much better than that performance and can be forgiven for that occasion. Connections must think he can go well in this race and stable jockey Andrea Atzeni stays in the saddle. He should go very well if learning to settle a bit better.

MAJEED 

MAJEED is an in-out character but he bounced  back to form last time when a fine second at Royal Ascot in the Wolferton Handicap. This horse needs plenty of luck in-running and needs to be produced very late in his races. He’s relatively well handicapped and Fergus Sweeney is an eye-catching booking. At his best, this horse would have a serious chance of backing up that last effort, but I would prefer to see his odds much bigger than the current 12/1 mark for a horse who has been inconsistent this year. However, he could still go very well in a race of this nature as he’s a former Listed/group placed horse at his best.

DRAGON MALL 

DRAGON MALL really interests me here, he’s also trainer by David Simcock as the above horse is too. He’s posted some solid efforts since winning his maiden at Newmarket, including when a fine fourth behind THIKRIYAAT in a Group 3 twelve months ago. DRAGON MALL was slow away and lost ground before making good headway but suffered trouble in running at a crucial stage before staying on strongly to only be beaten around one length. That form has worked out well and he comes into today’s contest on the back of two eye-catching displays recently. He finished a tidy third at Nottingham following a break before running a remarkable race to finish ninth of 16 runners in the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot. DRAGON MALL lost a huge amount of ground having walked out of the stalls and he must have been at least 30 lengths behind the leaders at that stage and didn’t look as though he was going anywhere 3f out. However, he picked up in determine fashion to reel in half of the field to be beaten just over three lengths. It was a terrific run considering what happened to him at the start and granted an even break, he surely would have gone close to winning the race. DRAGON MALL has been left on the same mark 101 and if he breaks away cleanly, then he is more than capable of going close. I just think he’s overpriced and is clearly a very talented horse.

CONCLUSION 

I could arguably make a case for most of the field, who have good enough form to make and impact in this deep handicap. However, two horses stand out for me for betting purposes. Firstly, VICTORY BOND who looks well handicapped off a mark 102 on just his second start in handicap company and seems the type to have improved this season following a pleasing seasonal debut over the 1m trip here last time when third of 17 runners and can only improve for the extra two furlongs today. Connections must think he’s a decent horse and he ran well in last year’s Group 2 Dante stakes so he has a lot of class about him. He should go well today at fair enough odds 8/1 at the time of writing. My other selection has to be DRAGON MALL at 25/1, who I think is overpriced and has put in two eye-catching efforts recently. He was the horse to take out of the Wolferton Handicap having missed the break and gave away at least 30 lengths at the start. However, he finished the race so strongly to only be beaten around three lengths and if breaking away cleaner today, there is no reason why he can’t go close to winning this race. He’s got huge value and is a horse with a lot of talent. If he broke away better last time he could have gone close to winning and definitely wouldn’t be the price he is now.

VICTORY BOND – (10/1)  (1/4 odds four places) 
0.5 POINTS EACH-WAY 
DRAGON MALL (25/1) (1/4 odds four places) 
0.5 POINTS EACH-WAY 
Architect Tips
Posted in Weekly Preview | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Betting and the Exchanges with The Snout

It is fair to say that the confidence in high-street and online bookmakers is at an all time low. It is well documented across social media that if you are a half decent bettor, and seem to indicate you know what you are doing, you will find yourself being restricted by these firms to place your bets at the size that you want. The clear strategy employed by most, if not all, bookmakers today is “if you’re winning, we don’t want your business, at least not as much as you want to give us. If you are losing, but betting properly in a way that may cause us to lose over the long term, we don’t really want your business either”. 

There are plenty of sides to this strategy and the impact it has on people’s perception of bookmakers and even the long term implications it may have for sports such as Horse Racing in general, and it is almost impossible to cover all these angles in one article. However, the point of the following rambles is to attempt to figure out how we have got in this mess that we find ourselves in and how we can combat it by betting intelligently, and by utilising Betting Exchanges such as Betfair Exchange, SMarkets and others.

Restricting customers in betting is not in it’s entirety a recent short-term trend. Even the days of when on-course bookmakers would price up their races 10 minutes before the off, shrewd punters were known to the ring and often pushed back on their sizeable betting offers. But this was few and far between and there is no doubt that the last 10-15 years the problem has got worse, which really has coincided with the creation of the internet, and more specifically, internet betting. This created an environment which allows firms to easily track your betting behaviour and understand the patterns in which you bet, ultimately deciding in whether they want your business. One of the factors that I would like to bring to the attention of readers right now is Betting Concessions.

Maximum Stake has been capped to just £1.50!

Maximum Stake has been capped to just £1.50!

Betting Concessions

When I talk about betting concessions, I mean the following; BOG, 4 places paid at 1/4 odds in 10 runner races, money back if the favourite wins etc etc. These concessions are designed by marketing teams to draw in new and most likely profitable (profitable to the bookmakers, that is) punters. They are essentially loss-leaders that are marketed by firms to ensure they are getting the business of punters new to the game, and it is even estimated that BOG alone costs the bookmaking industry millions of pounds a year in paying out inflated prices across the UK. Now, why would bookmakers openly pay out millions of pounds more than they would do normally via a product that punters didn’t specifically ask for? It is a competitive environment, bookmaking, and BOG amongst other concessions helps to attract new punters in. Once they have their business, they can from there decide whether the punter will be profitable for them to keep, or a shrewd bettor whom they can quickly reduce the amount of concessions they receive and eventually restrict them completely.

My argument is simple; remove concessions that costs the industry millions of pounds in payouts to punters per year, and use this additional capital to lay bets to a half decent level to loyal horse racing fans.

Betting Concession with Coral

An example of a Betting Concession. Coral want your business and use this offer to lure in the punters

Betting Exchanges

Now, onto the subject of Betting Exchanges. Many would argue that they have been a great creation for the betting public, and in many cases that is true. However, the ability for punters to “lay” bets as well as place bets, created potential to “arb”, meaning to place bets with high street bookmakers at one price and then lay this bet off on Betfair at a slightly bigger price for a guaranteed profit. Although this is a practice that most on-course bookmakers employ now, it simply blurred the lines between punters wanting genuine value and those taking advantage of the system and causing bookmakers to restrict those that are in every sense getting “too much” value.

As I said, this topic is one that could be discussed for quite literally days on end, so let’s move on to how we can use Betting Exchanges for when restrictions are in place for those of us that are beating the bookmakers and therefore cannot place decent sums on.

The creation and building of Betting Exchanges was during a time in our history where peer-to-peer was really exploding in many areas of life. We had things such as illegal music sharing and even websites such as eBay being prime examples of how users were happy to share and interact with each other directly and anonymously on the internet. There was clearly (with obvious hindsight) a place for this in the Betting world too.

Betting Exchanges have pro’s and con’s, briefly touched on above. The key reason why it can sometimes be tough to replace betting with high-street bookmakers to Exchanges is that market liquidity can take time to form. For example, some punters try and get on with regular bookmakers as early as 5 and 6pm the evening before a race, which will eventually lead you to becoming restricted as you will probably be beating the price, which is of course the core of what bookmakers hate. At this time in the evening on Betting Exchanges, there is more often than not no market to place a bet. There is no one willing to lay therefore there is no bet that can be placed. It really is from 8pm where you are able to get more realistic bets on. I am looking at a race right now, reading at 8.21pm on Monday night, and can get £44 on a horse called Cool Bahamian in the 3.40 at Pontefract at an average odds of 7.2 (6/1), where he is 6/1 with most online firms.

Uses of Betting with the Exchange?

It takes patience with betting via Exchanges. These are my main reasons and times to use them:

  • I use Betfair Exchange for placing bets on events where liquidity is high from an early stage. This will be races that are perhaps early closers or most weekend races.
  • They can be used in combination with restricted betting accounts. I have some accounts with firms that are generally better known for laying a bet (albeit a small one) that I would top up with bets on the Exchange throughout the day of the race. This would of course be in line with my betting/point structure, critical for any successful bettor.
  • Be particularly interested in backing bigger priced horses via Exchanges. Regularly I have been able to obtain bigger prices about, for example, 16/1 shots on the morning of the race itself. Betfair make a huge amount of noise about having “better odds” compared to industry SP. This is amplified and exaggerated by outsiders, but can in some cases be genuine.

There is also a big opportunity with Exchanges due to the fact that you can lay bets yourself. I often look for “Back to Lay” or “Lay to Back” horses, in-running, in races where the conditions are right. As an example, I may have a race whereby there is one only pace angle in the race that is a fairly big price at 10 on Betting Exchanges. I can use this information to back this horse at 10, then set a lay bet when the price hits 5 in-running, and stake it correctly so when it is matched, I am guaranteeing a profit mid-run. Although obvious, this type of movement in odds is an extremely powerful and consistent method, due to the in running odds mainly reflecting position in running and jockeys happy to sit behind front runners for 85-90% of the race. Another example would be employing the same strategy for horses that are known to be strong travellers, as the in running traders would look to back this horse down to a low price when it is the last off the bridle.

Although a little time consuming, this type of betting strategy is one that can only be employed on betting exchanges and therefore should be of interest for those who want to ensure profitability in their racing.

What lies ahead for Betting?

As mentioned above, it is tough to condense and discuss in much detail the cause, and implications of, betting restrictions, but it really is a system that needs investigating by regulatory bodies. The recent news of Bet365 being taken to court for their inability to pay out on bets just highlights the fact that everything is not as it should be in the betting world. But, by betting intelligently, consistently, and utilising Exchanges where possible, I am a firm believer and proof that you can make very handsome sums by betting on Horse Racing in the long term.

I also have a feeling that this isn’t the last article I will be writing on this subject…

The Snout.

 

Posted in HOT TOPIC | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Scoop 6 Jackpot Selection

Coral Challenge Handicap 2:25 Sandown

What type of horse does it take to win this race?

Having watched the last 10 replays of the race I am of the opinion that this race goes to a horse who sits midfield to the back of the field. Pretty much every year the race has been taken along at a frantic pace and those finishing best come from the middle – back of the field.

Front runners in the field?

You know they are going to go fast as you have Rusumaat and Naval Warfare who have both gone from the front in their last 2 starts. Secret Art and Pactolus also like to be up with pace. I am pretty sure this is going to be run at a decent pace so immediately I am looking for a horse who can come from off the pace.

What course will they take?

From leaving the stalls they run 2 furlongs before they reach the bend. They then go around the bend for 2 furlongs before entering the straight with 4 furlongs left.

Does the draw have an advantage?

For me anywhere you have a bend you will want to be drawn in the first 8 stalls if you have 16 runners or more. As I said at the start, this race is often won by a horse coming from off the pace. You don’t need to be a front runner but at the same time you want your horse to be relaxed from the off and not use valuable energy coming across from a wide draw, to get a position.

The horses I am happy to put a line through straight away?

I will start with the youngsters, that being the 3 year olds. We have two 3 year olds in the race with Rusumaat and Naval Warfare. This is a tough race and I believe you need to be a hardened horse with the hustle and bustle. Personally I believe both lack experience of this type of race. I think both are good horses but with £500k on the line I wont be putting my trust in a 3 year old.

Other horses we are going to put a line through?

Straight away the 10 horses at the bottom of the betting who are 14/1 and over, Hors De Combat, Master Of World, Muntazah, Mythical Madness, Manson, Glory Awaits, Pactolus, Sir Roderic, Secret Art and Ripoli.

I believe some of these are decent value bets but this race is not about value with £500k on the line, it is about finding the winner.

Who does that leave us with?

Starting with the favourite we are now left with 5 horses. Greenside, Blair House(non runner since writing), George William, El Hayem and GM Hopkins.

I will now go through each one individually pointing out the good and the bad.

Greenside

Worthy favourite and is a horse who is improving. This will be by far his toughest assignment to date as he has been mixing it in Class 3 handicaps. His last 2 starts have come at Sandown, finishing 1st and 2nd so he obviously likes the track. He is nicely drawn in 2 but does have to overcome a 5lb rise in the weights from his last start. Improvement is possible but if he don’t improve I don’t think he will be good enough to win. Martin Harley carries 9st 5lb.

Blair House (Non Runner since writing)

Ran a cracker on his last start to finish 2nd in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. He has gone up 5lb for that effort so a new career best will be needed here. He was gelded in October but was not seen until Royal Ascot, so you have to question what problems he had. You would like to think he will improve from his last run but if he was injured previously then he has only had a 17 day turnaround and the bounce factor comes into question. I really like the horse and think he is a good horse but William Buick will have to overcome a draw of 16. He wears blinkers so obviously they need him to concentrate. Will he use up too much energy trying to get his position? Buick carries 9st 8lb.

George William

Started the season well beating GK Chesterton at Nottingham and this was followed by
by 2 good runs at Newbury and Ascot, finishing 4th and 2nd. Flopped in the Royal Hunt Cup last time out but did race on the wrong side. The handicapper has kept him on the same handicap mark of 98 despite finishing 22nd of 29. George William started the season on a mark of 90 so is now 8lb higher. You have to ask if the horse has peaked too soon and if he is now in the handicappers clutches. He ran at Sandown last year on the same ground and same trip but could only come home 5th, in a weaker race, on a mark of 89. Sean Levey to carry 9st 4lb.

El Hayem

Ryan Moore teams up with Sir Michael Stoute on El Hayem. Another who flopped on his last start at Newbury back in May. Regular jockey Andre Atzeni has snubbed this horse in favour of Shraaoh in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Previous starts were 6th of 21 and 2nd of 11 on ground similar to todays. He is lightly raced and has Champion jockey on board. He is drawn in 10 which is not the worst but you have to ask will he find something too good. This is his toughest assignment yet so will need to improve a few pounds. Ryan Moore carries 8st 12lb.

GM Hopkins

Top weight with 9st 10lb and a first look at his form would not read well, you have to dig deeper. Was rated 112 by the handicapper this time last year so is 8lb lower in the handicap today on a mark of 104. He did bounce back with a solid run last time out in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 7th of 29. A previous Royal Hunt Cup winner on a mark of 103 and a winner of a Class 1 a year ago. Has the class on his day. Trained by John Gosden and owned R Heffen who loves a winner at Sandown. GM Hopkins is drawn in 7 and James Doyle will carry 9st 10lb.

So lets get rid of a few more

From my findings I am happy to get rid of George William as I now think he is in the handicappers grip and I also think he has had his peak, early in the season.

I am also happy to get rid of El Hayem as he normally finds something too good and I think his handicap mark is as high as he wants it. I think he will run a sound race but we want a winner not someone who places.

Who do we have left?

We have 3 horses left. This is the tricky stage as I now have to blank all the prices and use my imagination of how the race will pan out. My knowledge of the sport and what I see when reading the form is going to full use.

The three horses we have left are:

GREENSIDE
Weight – 9st 5lb
Draw – 2

BLAIR HOUSE (Non Runner since writing)
Weight – 9st 8lb
Draw – 16

GM HOPKINS
Weight – 9st 10lb
Draw – 7

So we have 3 horses left and the weight they are carrying range from 9st 10lb – 9st 5lb. Just 5lb between them at the weights so this is a case of who is the wrong side of the handicap and who is not.

I know Blair House (now a non runner) and GM Hopkins both run in the Royal Hunt Cup. Blair House finished 2nd with a clear run and GM Hopkins finished 7th with traffic problems but finished like a train. The handicapper raised Blair House 5lb and put GM Hopkins down 1lb. GM Hopkins is now 6lb better off at the weights than when the pair met at Royal Ascot. That is going to be a big difference here. Blair House also has to overcome a draw of 16 so will be using energy at the start of the race to get a position. He will be forced to run a race he potentially don’t want, in order to get a position.

On that evidence I am happy to take Blair House out of the equation.

Just 2 horses left

Greenside and GM Hopkins. The simple question I am asking myself, do I think Greenside should be within 5lb of GM Hopkins. Greenside is rated 99 and GM Hopkins 104. On what both horses have achieved I don’t think Greenside is actually a 99 horse on what we have seen. He is up against some very good horses.

That leaves me with our selection for £500k GM HOPKINS.

OUR SELECTION = GM HOPKINS

Why GM HOPKINS?

Firstly I will go straight to the negative and get that out of the way. He has to carry 9st 10lb. It is not brilliant but over the years I have learned to ignore the weight and follow the handicap marks. Basically are others badly handicapped on the wrong side of the handicapper and are horses on the right side of the handicapper. For me this is perfect example with what I believe. Although the weight is a worry it won’t be the first time a horse has carried top weight. Prince Of Johanne carried exactly the same 9st 10lb when winning the race back in 2013. In fact the 2nd home that day carried 9st 9lb. Horses who carry 9st 2lb or more are often the horses who win this race.

I have had my eye on GM Hopkins for a few races and watched his handicap come down at the same time. At the back of last season he was never put into races and looked a horse who was having his handicap mark ‘looked after’. Even his first start of this season he was being ‘looked after’.

His last start came at Royal Ascot and he finished a fast finishing 7th of 29. He had a few traffic problems and was switched right to left in the last 1f but still came home in good fashion. I have used the word above but he looks a horse who is about to ‘peak’ at the right time for us. This is only his 3rd start of the season and is now on his lowest handicap mark since winning the Royal Hunt Cup back on 2015. That race is so tough to win and is easily a better race than todays. If GM HOPKINS can win that race on a mark of 103 then he can surely win this race on a mark of 104. After winning that race he went on to finish 2nd in the Balmoral Handicap the same season at Ascot, carrying 9st 6lb on a mark of 109. Another race hotter than todays.

After that his rating went up to 112 which was too high for handicaps so he started mixing it in Class 1 and Group Races. He was a winner of the Class 1 Listed race – Stratford Place Stud Paradise Stakes, beating horses like Arod and one of Saturdays Eclipse fancies Decorated Knight, showing the class that he has. GM HOPKINS was rated 114 by this time so since then it has been a slippery slop of bringing down his handicap mark to which is now very workable on 104.

GM HOPKINS is a smooth travelling horse who remains on the bridle and the trouble with those straight mile races is you often have a wall of horses in front of you, spread across the track. After his 7th in the Royal Hunt Cup I write in my notes – GM HOPKINS would do better if he run around a bend. That is exactly what he will be doing today.

He has run well around a bend on previous runs which include a win at Sandown as a 3 year old and then a decent 3rd in a Class 1, again at Sandown. We know he likes the track which has proved crucial over the years at Sandown.

I honestly believe this race is going to be set up perfectly for the horse. He generally likes to be held up but every time he has run around a bend he has been slotted in midfield. As mentioned at the start the winner of this race generally comes from of the pace. He has a perfect draw in 7 where James Doyle can simply slot him where he wants and get him to relax from the off.

This is how I see the race being run.

Rusumaat and Naval Warfare will come from wide draws to make the running. Both those horses will use up too much energy by doing this and trying to make all. This will set it up for GM HOPKINS who I think will sit about 3-4 from the back. I think James Doyle will try and grab the rail and basically watch the race unfold in front him. GM HOPKINS will travel sweetly around the bend and when they turn in from the bend, he will have a full 4 furlongs to make his decision and which gaps to go for. GM HOPKINS will still be on the bridle 2 furlongs out, probably travelling better than anything. James Doyle will then push the button and GM HOPKINS will have a full 2 furlongs to pick up and get him going. Entering the final furlong I expect a horse to be on the rail in front of him so James Doyle angles him to the outside to produce him as late as possible. GM HOPKINS gets home in front by 1/4 of a length and we land £500k.

James Doyle is a very underrated jockey who actually rode GM HOPKINS for the first time at Royal Ascot. He has now got a feel for the horse which is great going into the race.

The trainer John Gosden is a magician and currently 69% of his horses are running to form.

This is all set to be a terrific Saturday afternoon and as you can see I have done my homework, it is now over to GM HOPKINS and James Doyle.

Posted in Latest Thoughts | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Coral Eclipse 2017 Preview with JPW Racing Tipster

Big Race Preview – Coral Eclipse from Sandown Park

What an absolute cracker this race is set to be. The old against the new. Will the 3 year olds come out on top or will the old cavalry have something to say about it? Hawkbill was last years winner and it was actually a horse we tipped at odds of 6/1.

Lets take you through the field and the main dangers:

CLIFFS OF MOHER is 2/1 favourite after his Derby 2nd. He didn’t quite see out the 1m 4f that day and a drop in trip looked on the cards. I think he will be better suited by the 1m 2f but at 2/1 others are better value.

BARNEY ROY was a winner of the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He had horses such as Churchill behind that day and it was a terrific performance. For me, all along I have thought 1m 2f is his perfect trip so this step should see further improvement. I am actually quite surprised he is as big as 7/2 as he should be closer to favouritism in my opinion. Improving fast and I think this horse will turn out to be something special.

EMINENT ran a cracker in the Derby to come home 4th and this trip looks ideal. Eminent was behind Barney Roy in the 2000 Guineas and behind Cliffs Of Moher in the Derby. Eminent could improve but it’s hard to see how he turns the form around with the aforementioned two. 4/1 is a little too short for me, I would want around 6/1.

Of the rest we have ULYSSES and DECORATED KNIGHT and I am finding it hard to say anything about them. Reason is I can’t see them giving away a shed load of weight. They lack that touch of class. Both are good horses but both lacking something to challenge the above.

CONCLUSION

I would go as far as saying a Reverse Tri-Cast on CLIFFS OF MOHER, BARNEY ROY and EMINENT as I really can’t see how the other two get involved with the weight they are giving away. I feel very strongly about it for this year’s Coral Eclipse.

From a win point of view and at the prices I am very keen on BARNEY ROY. This horse is going places. The step up in trip will bring out further improvement and ultimately I think he will have too much speed for the other two. We haven’t seen the best of BARNEY ROY yet but come Saturday I am confident you will see a monster performance.

Good Luck
JPW Racing Tipster

Posted in Weekly Preview | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why it’s crucial to follow a Betting System

Architect Tips gives us the lowdown

As professional tipsters we make no secret of the importance of sticking to a system. Imagine winning 3 bets out of 4 on a Tuesday. Your bank has gone from £100 to £240. You get excited when tomorrow’s selections come in and rather than place the advised 2 points on the NAP, you go in hard and bet half your betting back because the write-up has sold it to you that much. Post time comes and the horse gets a horrendous break from the stalls and can only fight back to finish 3rd. What a waste! Whilst everyone else only had a 2 point dent in the bank you are left reeling and you’ve wiped out all those winnings from the great day before.

This is just one example and you’d be amazed how much it happens. People lose discipline, they get excited, or on the flip side, chase. It all points to bad betting. By sticking to the system you can guarantee yourself the best possible chance of success and all our tipsters have shown, in time, profits are a guarantee.

STARTING BUDGET

There first thing to do when following a system is making sure you have a set starting bank. This is the best way in order to make long-term profit. Like for instance, if you are just betting for the sake of it by putting £5 per day etc into your betting method it won’t get you anywhere. You need to make sure you have enough in the starting bank to cover any losses and take a steady approach. Firstly, it is much more easier to accomplish the betting game by keeping level stakes to each bet. On rare occasions there might be bets that are worth a risk of an extra point in a bet. But, mostly all bets should be on at 0.5 points each-way and 1 point win. A typical system that is very common would be if you have a starting budget of £500 (recommended) you would be doing £5 per point, which would mean 0.25pts e/w = £2.50 e/w or 1pt win = £5 win.

There is no problem offering the odd raised stake bet as mentioned above but we’d never surpass the realms of 10 point wins, that’s just silly and can throw all the hard work away in a second. I generally stick with 2 points, and maybe 3 as an absolute maximum.

LONG TERM SUCCESS

Below are examples of the betting system:

£1000 Starting Budget – £10.00 per point
£500 Starting Budget – £5.00 per point.
£250 Starting Budget – £2.50 per point.
£100 Starting Budget – £1.00 per point.

This is best way of making a steady long-term profit and is very important to following this system. Even if you have selection provided to you at 33/1 or a short priced favourite. It doesn’t mean go and waste big stakes on the favourite. That is the wrong thing to do and you won’t make profit from doing that. You have to stay disciplined and stick to the points system as shown above whether it’s a short odds or long odds unless stated in the email as a raised stake bet for example, (2pts win or 1pt e/w).

Below is an example of one of my customers backing at £50 per point. This was one of our Grand National selections and was advised at 0.5 points each way. You don’t have to put up huge points selections to win big. Many of our customers started from the humble beginnings of £2.50 or £5 a point, they’ve grow their banks through discipline and following us, to levels as big as £100 per point.

Be aware if you get to this stage bookies start to ban you, be careful, spread your bets through bookmakers and use the exchanges.

Grand National Winner - TICK!

Grand National Winner – TICK!

Don’t expect to win over night, that’s not how horse racing works when betting. No doubt, us Tipsters have people sign up and expect to win in one day when that’s not how to think. It’s about being able to afford what you can lose but most of all, we make long-term profit month in month out at Tipsters Empire and that is how you should approach the system. If you stick to the points system on the selections provided, you will make good income on our tips over each month and you will realise there isn’t any other better way of using your bank. Following this system is the best way of achieving a fine income but most importantly, it’s about enjoying horse racing and to stay disciplined and never chase losses. Patience is key and the rewards will be returned.

Architect Tips

Newmarket Festival 2017

Posted in HOT TOPIC | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Northumberland Plate – Antepost Preview with Tipsters Empire

The Snout takes a look at the big race from up North

The Northumberland Plate is the showpiece event of the whole year for Newcastle racegoers, and the 2m centrepiece is often the target of plenty of stayers’ campaigns. Last year, it was ran on the all weather for the first time as Newcastle decided to remove their flat turf course in favour of the synthetic surface, which of course impacts the way we look at this race. Many trends and key pointers to this race are as good as useless in this instance, but there is no doubting that there is going to be some serious value on show for Saturday’s race.

Won last year by the strong-staying Antiquarium, the one that followed him home that day was SEAMOUR. It was heartbreak on the day as this horse travelled so powerfully through the race, and looked to have settled this race half a furlong out. However, he was unaware of the classy Godolphin runner and 2nd it was to be. He will no doubt try his hand in the race again this weekend, and his form hasn’t dipped since. An excellent 6th in the Ebor off this very mark of 103, he made his comeback in his prep race at York over 1m6f, where he was a respectable 3rd to the classy Dal Harraild. This horse has a huge chance on all pieces of form, and I can’t imagine 9/1 being around on the day.

It wouldn’t be a top staying handicap without an unexposed Sir Mark Prescott horse, though, and his charge FLYMETOTHESTARS looks to be standing in Seamour’s way. Only four starts in his short career so far, he looked very smart when powering home over this course and distance, beating Ascot Stakes 2nd Endless Acres. The rest of the field included some very smart 2m+ horses and he swept those aside with no real issue, and the 9lb rise is absolutely fair. 6/1 is the current price, and he is probably the most likely winner but I would at this stage probably be looking elsewhere.

There are two that would interest me from an antepost point of view and the first to mention would be the Ian Williams trained LONDON PRIZE.  This horse has been very progressive on the National Hunt scene and the flat, and after his excellent Imperial Cup victory, he last time out was extremely well backed at Goodwood when winning by a cool 8L, finding more and more when asked to improve. The issue is, with him, is that he might not get into the race standing at number 33 on the list. If he doesn’t make it here, he could be a good thing for the Consolation race ran before the big one.

The other, is the Roger Charlton trained BLAKENEY POINT. I am a big fan of this horse and I am convinced he can win a nice race. He goes very well on the all weather surface; he won at Kempton in April on his comeback this year without any trouble at all, and he was heavily backed for the Chester Cup where he finished 12th, beaten 11L, but he travelled like a very good horse that day and just got tight for room at a key stage. He was allowed to coast home following that, but clearly it wasn’t his true form. He ran well at Goodwood, which I would imagine would have been a prep for this, over an inadequate trip of 1m6f and he again travelled powerfully but didn’t have the tactical speed to win the race. He is nicely handicapped and with a run looking likely, 20/1 at the time of writing looks a bit big.

This is an intriguing race to look forward to and BLAKENEY POINT (20/1) certainly appeals at this stage with a run looking likely, and if LONDON PRIZE doesn’t quite make the cut then he will be very tough to beat in the Vase (no prices available currently).

The Snout.

Posted in Weekly Preview | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment