Today’s selection is from Cheltenham in the December Gold Cup.
2:25 – For me EASTER METEOR is the value bet in the race and can’t believe he is available at 12/1. His last 2 runs have been excellent and we will start with his run in the Paddy Power Gold cup. He was cruising coming 2 fences out when he fell and for me he looked the winner of that race. The winner of that race Johns Spirit is the favourite today and as short as 5/1. Same goes with Colour Squadron who finished runner up who is also trading at 5/1. I cant see how the bookies hae priced EASTER METEOR out of it when our selection is better at the weights than both rivals.
His next run was at Newbury where he put in another great run getting beat by another of todays rivals Cantlow. EASTER METEOR is 3lb better off today for a 1 length beating yet Cantlow is also alot shorter in the market.
The bookies have definately got this wrong and if EASTER METEOR puts in another performance like his last 2 runs he is certain to be bang there.
Thank you very much for the 12/1 much appreciated bookmakers.
BEST PRICED 12/1 @
JPW Racing Tipster
Today’s free tip is from Newbury in the 3:00 Hennessy Gold Cup.
For me LORD WINDERMERE is the bet of the day. This is horse who going to be suited by the hustle a bustle of this race. I believe he is at least 10lbs ahead of the handicapper.
It’s interesting that his trainer Jim Culloty has come out this week and stated that Davy Russell rode him in training and said he was twice the horse he was last year.
If Lord Windermere has any chance of running or going close in the gold cup he has to win this or go very close. He has to be a lot better than his mark of 154.
I still think is RSA win at the festival was top draw as when he came around the bend he slipped up quite badly. There are not many horses who could make that mistake 2 fences out and still come back and win a festival race in such convincing fashion. At 8/1 he is a top bet I think he could go off around 6-1 if the support continues.
JPW Racing Tipster
Todays Free Tip in from Haydock in the Betfair Chase 3:00
I really like the look of CUE CARD and have been over the race in my head and this how I see it unfold.
CUE CARD has the engine to head the field from the start, I am pretty sure about that.Joe Tizzard will have to keep enough energy to see the trip out, so he will need to get his pacemaking spot on.
Bobs Worth or Silviniaco Conti are not particularly headstrong, so I would say it is guaranteed they’ll sit in behind behind CUE CARD.
I pretty much feel that Joe Tizzard can set whatever pace he needs but that needs to be a pace that lets the horse relax in front and keeps the others on their toes.
The field cannot afford to let Cue Card get away, but if Joe Tizzard gets his pace right, it will put pressure on the jumping of suspect jumpers Long Run and Tidal Bay.
I think it could also see Bobs Worth being niggled along at times to stay with them. Barry Geraghty won’t be too bothered by this. He will want to be just picking them off one by one up that long straight.
For me the race will then unfold between Cue Card and Bobs Worth and back to the pace Joe Tizzard had set. If he has got it right he will have enough in hand to hold off Bobs Worth on the run-in.
This is a cracking a race in which Silviniaco Conti has failed to be mentioned. For me Daryl Jacob choosing Ascot over the Betfair Chase is a big clue and Dynaste personally i dont think he is good enough.
Its also worth noting that CUE CARD Betfair Chase and King George Double is 33/1 @ . There will be plenty of worse 33/1 you will see all season.
Come on the CUE CARD.
BEST PRICED 15/2 @
As a Paddy Power Gold Cup Day Promotion I am giving away 2 free tips today. Both are huge value.
First up we the Paddy Power Gold Cup 2:30
NADIYA DE LA VEGA is huge value at 14/1. She finished 3rd in this race last year behind Al Ferof and Walkon. NADIYA DE LA VEGA ran off a mark of 145 last year but today she is down 5lb to a mark of 140. She carried 10st 8lb last year now carrying just 10st 3lb today. For me Cheltenham form is crucial and our picks loves the place with 1 win and two 3rds from 5 visits. She also a much better horse when given good ground and as it stands the ground is in perfect condition. A massive positive for me also is the fact that NADIYA DE LA VEGA remains unbeaten on her season debut. She clearly loves to be fresh. Everything points to a massive run and for me there is nothing not to like about NADIYA DE LA VEGA.
BEST PRICED 12/1 @
My next selection comes from the 3:00. RECESSION PROOF is overpriced in my opinion at 16/1. Ok he has not jumped a hurdle since the 2011 Cheltenham Festival where he ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. I think the bookies have underestimated RECESSION PROOF as although 18 months ago that 5th place was top class. Al Ferof won that day, Spirit Son 2nd, Sprinter Sacre 3rd and Cue Card. All went on to massive things so there is no shame in finishing behind them. Ok you could argue that RECESSION PROOF has been off the course but John Quinn has been very clever by giving him a couple of runs on the flat last month. That should have him primed perfectly today and I like the fact that the trainer has been very shrewd by acquiring Bryan Cooper’s services as jockey. I would be very surprised if RECESSION PROOF wasn’t involved in the finish.
BEST PRICED 16/1 @
My selection today come from Wincanton in the Elite Hurdle 2:05
For me this is a 2 horse race between Melodic Rendezvous and FAR WEST. I favour FAR WEST who I believe will be naturally fitter for his first run of the season. The trainer Jeremy Scott has come out and stated Melodic Rendezvous always needs his first run and personally Paul Nicholls is the best in the business at getting them right first time out.
FAR WEST done nothing wrong last season winning 4 on the bounce and beating some very good sorts. He then went on to finish a very good 2nd in the triumph hurdle to the very impressive OUR CONNOR. I think that type of form will be to much for to todays rivals and expect him to win comfortably. FAR WEST should be even better this season with a summer underneath him and considering he went off 9/2 for the triumph hurdle the 3/1 today looks a steal. I have him down as 2/1 shot against the field so value is still left in him for us.
BEST PRICED 3/1 @
Next up we have the 3:20 SAMEDIFFERENCE is huge at 11/1 and way overpriced. He is overpriced on way to many factors. First I have spotted is the fact that he finished just 3 lengths off Unioniste at Newbury, giving him 1lb. Unioniste is a low as 7/2 for tomorrow’s Charlie Hall. If Unioniste was in the race I know he would be a lot shorter than the 11/1 on offer.
Secondly SAMEDIFFERENCE ran a cracker to win the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. He showed real guts and determination something which will stand him in good stead for todays race. He beat a horse called Super Duty that day who I rate highly. Another horse who if he lined up today would again be a lot shorter than 11/1.
After the festival SAMEDIFFERENCE then went to the bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown and put in a terrific performance finishing 2nd carrying 11st 7lb(same as today) and I think the bookies have totally underestimated him. Todays conditions and track will be right up his street and a race like this where lots of stamina is needed is the reason I cant see him to far away. One thing for certain is that he will definitely give us a big run for our money.
BEST PRICED 11/1 @
Saturdays free tip is from Chepstow in 3:35 Persian War Novices Hurdle.
This is a race Paul Nicholls loves to win and today he enters CAESAR MILAN. You basically take note of who he enters in this race as in the last 2 years he has won this race with Wonderful Charm who went on to run in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. The previous year he won the race With Silvinaco Conti who has gone on to amazing things and was travelling as good as anything before falling in the Gold Cup in March. Paul Nicholls has won this race 6 times in the last 12 years with a phenomenal strike rate of 50%.
Something worth noting is that CAESAR MILAN is owned by the Barber and Stewart Families. Reading between the lines this horse has an awful lot of potential and I am very confident of him winning this race. He was trained by Ian Ferguson last season before being snapped up after his impressive win at Ayr in March. I know Paul Nicholls cannot wait for him to run and I actually think the 9/4 available is quite decent as I have him at 6/4 in my book.
BEST PRICED 9/4 @
I am going to throw a horse out Ante Post for this years Paddy Power Gold Cup. I know the entries are not out yet but once they are I can guarantee he will not be this price.
I really like the look of the Paul Nicholls trained UNIONISTE for this years Paddy Power. Same owner John Hales as last years winner Al Ferof, I feel the temptation of another crack at this race will be hard to turn. Ok there is talk that he will be heading to the Charlie Hall at Wetherby on November 2nd. If UNIONISTE was to run a big race in the Charlie Hall, I can see Nicholls taking advantage of his new handicap mark by running him in this 2 weeks later. It is a big if but I cant see what else Paul Nicholls has for this race and it is a race he really likes to target. Besides Paul Nicholls bought this horse last year from France and on his first start in Britain he ran at Aintree, then 2 weeks later he was at Cheltenham, at this very meeting to run in a novice chase won by Dynaste. If Nicholls done it last year why not do it again.
I really rate UNIONISTE highly and he is a smashing chaser. I think a lot of people forget he is only a 5 year old with massive improvement left in him. UNIONISTE had a hectic season last year running 8 times in the space of a year. (5 in Britain, 3 in france). By the time he got to Cheltenham where he started off 5/2 fav for the RSA it was a race to many. He did finish well but looked tired on his feet. With a Summer rest underneath him he will come back bigger, stronger and more mature and I believe UNIONISTE is in for a great year. He is trading at a massive 42/1 on Betfair and is definitely worth a couple of quid on taking the chance he does run in the Paddy Power.
BEST PRICE 42s @
Todays Free Tip is from Cheltenham in the 3:45
VIF ARGENT is a horse I do not know a lot about but what I do know is that David Pipe is clearly taking advantage of his handicap mark. I am a good judge of these sort of entries and I think this horse could be very good, hence the entry in this tough handicap on his first start in Britain. He is clearly a lot better than the 130 the handicapper rates him at.
His form in France was decent enough and being only 4 I think there is plenty of improvement left in him.
What attracts me more to VIF ARGENT is his breeding. He is by Dom Alco who just keeps producing high class national hunt horses. A few from Dom Alco are the likes of Silvinaco Conti, Al Ferof, Grand Crus, Neptune Collognes and Unioniste. At 8/1 I am very happy knowing David Pipe has a handicap Plot on his hands.
BEST PRICE 10/1 @
Saturday’s free tip is from Chepstow.
5:45 JOIN TOGETHER is way overpriced at 14/1. Ok he has to carry top weight but we have Harry Derham claiming 5lb taking JOIN TOGETHER down to a very workable 11 st 7lb. He loves Chepstow and has not run a bad race here. He skated a novice hurdle by 20 lengths and fell when traveling well.
I think JOIN TOGETHER has to much class for these and is more than capable of giving weight all round. His form is right at the top and you only got to look at his form to know 14/1 is to big.
He has been as handicapped as high as 156 in his novice days running in races like the RSA, Mildmay at Aintree has finished 2nd in the Becher Chase aswell as being fancied for the Grand National this year. I think people forget JOIN TOGETHER is only 8 and is right at his peak. I really can’t see how he will be out of the frame on a track which suits, ground which is ideal and a field he is more than capable of beating. One negative is the weight but he is a big strong horse more than capable of carrying.
BEST PRICE AVAILABLE 14/1 @