This weekend was great for JPW Members and after a couple of bad weeks it was nice to get things back on track to our usual standards.
Saturday was an excellent day which started with some E/W money on GRAND VISION advised at 12/1 the evening before. He looked the winner 3 out and maybe if Jockey Brendan Powell held on to him a bit longer he may just of won.
The final race of the day gave us huge profits with a masterful ride from Sam Twiston Davies aboard HAWKES POINT. We advised HAWKES POINT at 10/1 the evening before and the result never looked in danger. We were also lucky enough to have SHOTGUN PADDY E/W advised 15/2 the evening before. The top weight showed in the final stages for SHOTGUN PADDY but it was a great effort to finish 3rd.
Sunday was another stormer for all involved.
MALLOWNEY was the easiest winner of the weekend at a huge 8/1. I knew he was way overpriced just by looking in the form book. We were also lucky enough to have DAYS HOTEL in the frame E/W at 8/1.
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1:55 Warwick
MOSSPARK will be suited to the step back up to 3 miles here after finished 3rd to the classy Close Touch at Wincanton. He made a few mistakes that day but i know he is a lot better than that showing. MOSSPARK did make a nice debut at Chepstow over fences in October and it is that type of form which should see him go close here. That day it was over 3 miles and the further the trip the better for this one. He finished just 7 lengths off Sausalito Sunrise who has been running well in defeat behind RSA fav Kings Palace on 2 occasions. MOSSPARK jumped really well that day and if he can put in the same performance I am sure he will go close. 15/2 is available.
Everything is in GRAND VISION favour here and I cannot believe he is available at a huge 12/1. He is a very big bold jumper who will love going left handed and will love soft ground. He made his debut over fences at Newbury and looked the winner to me before falling. He was disappointing on his next 2 starts but a return to this track will be right up his street.
GRAND VISION 2ND 13/2 advised 12/1 E/W the night before.
2:40 Kempton
HAMMERSLY LAKE is a very good horse on his day but his career has been stop start. This is the first season where things have gone well and makes his 3rd start of the season today. He was runner up at Cheltenham in October and then finished runner up to Silsol at Newbury. I thought Barry Gerraghty gave HAMMERSLY LAKE a bad ride at Newbury and had he been handier with him may well of won as he finished the race really well. All his form in france was on Soft ground so the going is also to his advantage. 7/1 is available.
DELL ARCA has a great chance here judging by his hurdling form last season. He won the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last November and then went from strength to strength with a 2nd, 5th and 3rd in Grade 1-3 races. He is rated 145 in the handicap which is about right but this is probably a field of horses he is capable of beating. 10/1 is available.
Both failed to run any sort of race.
3:35 Warwick
SHOTGUN PADDY won this race last year as a novice and is only 2lb higher in the handicap today. He should be a better horse this year now a year older. He was disappointing in the Welsh National on 27th December but I have no doubt he is much better than that form. He made a mistake at the 2nd fence so it was always going to be hard to recover. He will love todays conditions and I will be very surprised if he don’t feature with a full round of jumping. 15/2 is available.
HAWKES POINT is another horse who disappointed in the Welsh National after finishing 2nd in the same race a year earlier. Again I know he is better than that and has now been dropped 6lb which will be a big advantage. He is a horse who’s form reads 12122P on Soft ground or Heavy so will love todays conditions. Sam Twiston Davies on board is a big plus and with the form Paul Nicholls is in this season HAWKES POINT is handicapped to run a big race. 10/1 is available.
HAWKES POINT 1ST AT 15/2 advised 10/1 the night before. SHOTGUN PADDY 3RD 13/2 advised 15/2 E/W the night before.
SUNDAY 11/01/2015
Today we have 2 races from Kelso and Fairyhouse.
2:10 Kelso
I think CAPE TRIBULATION has a great chance in this and can only improve on his 2nd at Wetherby on Boxing Day especially on soft ground today. He travelled really well around Wetherby which was a better race than today in my opinion. The handicapper has put him up 4lb for that 2nd but the front 2 were 9 lengths clear of the 3rd in that race and pulled along way clear of the field. This is a horse who was rated 165 over fences 2 years ago and is 19lb lower than that mark today. I would be surprised if CAPE TRIBULATION wasn’t involved today. 7/2 is available with Coral.
CAPE TRIBULATION was very dissapointing and was pulled up.
2:30 Fairyhouse
I like the look of DAYS HOTEL who is down to his lowest handicap mark since December 2012. He runs off 150 here today and for me must have a big chance. He showed he still retains some of his old ability when finishing 3rd behind Felix Yonger and another of todays runners Mallowney. It is worth noting he had another 2 of todays runners behind, Alderwood and Arnaud. He did finish 4 lengths behind Mallowney but is now 4lb better off for a 4 length beating so it will be really close between them today. DAYS HOTEL is a horse who has been contesting all Grade 1 and 2s throughout his career so now in handicap company should run a big race. 8/1 is too big.
MALLOWNEY is also overpriced at 8/1. We can forgive his last run as that was in a hot Grade 1 at Leopardstown which he was never going to win. His start before he finished 2nd to Felix Yonger as stated above and his handicap mark remained unaltered. MALLOWNEY is a very good jumper and has some good form in the bag behind the likes of Ballycasey, Road To Riches and Art Of Logistics. He won’t be bumping into any horses of that calibre today so I think the 8/1 is huge value.
MALLOWNEY was the easiest winner of the weekend at 8/1. DAYS HOTEL was 3rd collection us E/W aswell.
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